Stephan Livera Podcast Are Bitcoin Treasury Companies Built to Last? with Marty Kendall | SLP674
Power Law and MNAV Limits
- Bitcoin treasury companies' MNAV and Bitcoin yield follow a power law decay as they accumulate more Bitcoin.
- MNAV tends toward one and yield toward zero over the long term as stacks grow larger.
The Life Cycle and Longevity Secrets of Bitcoin Treasury Companies
Bitcoin treasury companies follow a predictable life cycle: they start small with exponential Bitcoin accumulation, achieving a high mNAV and yield, but as their Bitcoin stack grows, yield naturally declines due to diminishing returns. Marty Kendall highlights that sustainable growth, like MetaPlanet's steady 0.9% daily Bitcoin yield, is key for long-term survival and maintaining mNAV above one, avoiding the risk of a rapid mNAV collapse.
Large, established players like MicroStrategy can sustain moderate yields and maintain an mNAV above one by leveraging preferred shares and enormous Bitcoin holdings, positioning themselves as the "banks of the future." Smaller, fast-growing entrants may offer exciting short-term upside but face greater risks if they cannot maintain growth or operational maturity.
The ability to execute consistently, manage capital efficiently (including ATM programs and bond offerings), and leverage jurisdictional advantages like Japan's low rates are critical indicators of success. Investors should assess each company's growth trajectory, execution plan, and risk profile, choosing between conservative blue-chip plays and higher-risk rapid-growth opportunities.
Sustainable Growth in BTCTCs
- Sustainable yield growth rate around 0.9% per day allows a Bitcoin treasury company to maintain long-term exponential growth.
- Companies starting with large Bitcoin stacks typically have lower yields and slower growth, limiting MNAV expansion.