Are Bitcoin Treasury Companies Built to Last? with Marty Kendall | SLP674

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Jul 14, 2025

Marty Kendall, a data analyst from microstrategist.com, dives into the intriguing world of Bitcoin treasury companies. He discusses the power laws that predict Bitcoin's growth and the challenges of maintaining a marginal net asset value (mNAV) above one. The conversation highlights the sustainability concerns these companies face and emphasizes the importance of risk management and community engagement. Kendall also explores the role of market dynamics and thoughtful investment strategies as crucial factors for long-term success in this evolving sector.

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INSIGHT

Power Law and MNAV Limits

Bitcoin treasury companies' MNAV and Bitcoin yield follow a power law decay as they accumulate more Bitcoin.
MNAV tends toward one and yield toward zero over the long term as stacks grow larger.

INSIGHT

Sustainable Growth in BTCTCs

Sustainable yield growth rate around 0.9% per day allows a Bitcoin treasury company to maintain long-term exponential growth.
Companies starting with large Bitcoin stacks typically have lower yields and slower growth, limiting MNAV expansion.

ADVICE

Manage Yield to Avoid MNAV Drop

Focus on managing your rate of Bitcoin purchasing and target yield to maintain stable MNAV.
Monitor Bitcoin yield decay closely to avoid steep MNAV drops and manage risk effectively.

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In this conversation, Stephan Livera and Marty Kendall explore the dynamics of Bitcoin treasury companies, focusing on power laws, market dynamics, and investment strategies. They discuss the sustainability of mNAV greater than one, the lifecycle of these companies, and the importance of community engagement. The conversation emphasizes the need for risk management and the potential for significant opportunities in the Bitcoin equity space.

Takeaways

🔸Marty Kendall discusses the intersection of Bitcoin and treasury companies.

🔸Power laws can help predict Bitcoin's growth trajectory.

🔸The ballistic acceleration model offers insights into Bitcoin and MicroStrategy's performance.

🔸Market dynamics influence the premium of mNAV over one.

🔸Sustainability of mNAV greater than one is a key concern for investors.

🔸Yield and market sentiment play crucial roles in investment decisions.

🔸The lifecycle of Bitcoin treasury companies affects their long-term viability.

🔸Investment strategies should consider risk management and market conditions.

🔸Operational businesses may provide stability compared to pure Bitcoin plays.

🔸Community engagement can significantly impact a company's market perception.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:33) - The correlation between Power Laws & Bitcoin Treasury Companies (BTCTC)

(08:19) - How do you evaluate mNAV premium?; Sustainability of mNAV > 1

(16:48) - What are the indicators of a successful Bitcoin Treasury Company?; Market dynamics

(19:00) - Sponsors

(26:59) - The risks of mNAV erosion

(35:00) - Lifecycle of Bitcoin Treasury Companies; Construction of a BTCTC portfolio

(41:26) - Days to Cover mNAV explained

(45:31) - The role of Bitcoin in banks of the future; survival of the fittest in BTCTCs

(48:31) - Sponsors

(50:18) - Operational Business vs. Bitcoin Accumulation; Long-term BTCTC strategies

(59:29) - When will $MSTR moon?; Market perception & Bitcoin value

(1:01:52) - Self custody Bitcoin vs BTCTCs

(1:06:39) - Evaluating risks and opportunities in Bitcoin investments

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Sponsors:

Stephan Livera links: