Global Data Pod US: Data Drop – May Jobs Report Recap
Jun 7, 2024
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Economist Michael Feroli and Content Strategist Samantha Azzarello discuss the May jobs report, highlighting diverging trends in establishment vs household surveys. They analyze wage growth, inflation implications, and speculate on future Fed policies, emphasizing the complexity of the current labor market.
Establishment survey showed robust job growth with increased earnings, household survey indicated rise in unemployment rate.
Slight increase in average hourly earnings hints at strong wage inflation, impacting broader inflation scenarios.
Deep dives
May Jobs Report Overview
The May jobs report highlighted contrasting results from the establishment and household surveys. The establishment survey showed robust job growth of 272,000 with increased average hourly earnings. In contrast, the household survey indicated a rise in the unemployment rate to 4% and a decline in employment measures. Despite mixed signals, the overall picture portrayed strength and resilience in the labor market.
Implications for Inflation and Federal Reserve
The slight increase in average hourly earnings suggests that wage inflation remains strong, potentially impacting the broader inflation scenario. Although there were downward revisions in prior months, the trend may align conflicting data between job growth and the unemployment rate. This report indicates a reduced likelihood of a July ease by the Fed, and a possible reassessment by November based on labor market performance.
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Analysis of May Jobs Report: Establishment vs Household Survey