What happens when Social Security runs out of money?
Oct 29, 2024
auto_awesome
Jason Furman, an Economics professor at Harvard and former chair of the Council of Economic Advisers under Obama, discusses the looming Social Security crisis. He highlights the imbalance between incoming payroll taxes and payouts, predicting potential depletion by 2031. Furman also explores the political implications of proposed tax cuts and borrowing to sustain funding. He introduces a new indicator for assessing America's financial health, emphasizing the importance of addressing national debt and fostering bipartisan solutions to avert financial disaster for retirees.
The projected depletion of the Social Security Fund by 2031 could lead to nearly 20% cuts in benefits for retirees unless Congress acts.
Rising federal debt fueled by proposed tax cuts may increase interest rates, impacting government spending and daily financial concerns for citizens.
Deep dives
Concerns Over Social Security Funding
Social Security is a critical part of the U.S. government's financial structure, accounting for over 20% of government spending. Current projections indicate that the Social Security Fund could run out of money by 2031 due to a gap between incoming payroll taxes and outgoing benefits. This potential shortfall raises fears that retirees may face automatic benefit cuts of nearly 20% unless Congress intervenes. Historical compromises in the past, such as raising the retirement age and adjusting payroll taxes, demonstrate that bipartisan efforts may be necessary to stabilize the program.
Impact of Election Policies on National Debt
The proposed tax cuts from candidates in the election are expected to exacerbate the federal debt, with Donald Trump's policies projected to increase it to 143% of GDP by 2035, while Kamala Harris's would lead to a lesser increase of 134%. The concern is that this rising debt could lead to higher interest rates, affecting everything from mortgages to government spending on vital services like education and medical research. Jason Furman, an economist, points out that consistent high levels of debt are unsustainable, and raising the national debt can create competitive pressures in the financial market. Thus, both candidates' platforms may contribute to a fiscal environment that pressures rising interest rates, impacting everyday citizens.
Rethinking Debt Metrics and Fiscal Policy
Traditionally, the debt-to-GDP ratio has been a key metric for assessing fiscal health, but analysts like Jason Furman suggest focusing instead on real interest payments as a share of GDP. Currently, these payments are below the 2% threshold that signals potential economic issues, but projected changes under either candidate's plans could push this ratio closer to or above it within a decade. The past crises surrounding Social Security have often catalyzed fiscal discussions, though some argue that these issues may be more about accounting than actual financial collapse. As such, while it is prudent to be wary of rising debt levels, there is no immediate panic necessary as adjustments to law and fiscal policy can be made to mitigate future risks.
Social Security has thus far been self-sustaining—payroll taxes go into this big fund, which then pays out monthly checks. But the problem we have now is the money coming into that fund is not keeping up with the money going out.
The election hasn't been great for people concerned about the government's finances. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that Donald Trump's election proposals will speed up the rundown in the Social Security fund by a few years.
So, when Social Security runs out of money as it's projected to do ... could we just borrow more money? And if so, what would that mean for the already rising government's debt?
Today on the show, how worried should we be about Social Security and the federal debt? We explain a fresh indicator to assess whether or not America's getting too far in the red.