EM strategists Jonny Goulden & Saad Siddiqui discuss EM markets, US elections impact, global economic trends, EMEA-EM vs Latin America market performance, relief rally, debt restructuring, bond offerings, and Sri Lanka's agreement
US elections impact EM performance, uncertainties weigh on markets.
Global data supports fixed income markets, US election uncertainty hampers market confidence.
Deep dives
Recent Market Movements
Emerging markets have shown mixed performance compared to the US markets, with underperformance seen particularly in Latin America. Despite some positive influences like the expected Fed actions, concerns around the US elections and specific developments in EM have impacted market movements. While US markets experienced a bullish period, EM faced challenges with FX fluctuations and increased rates.
Data and Market Positioning
Global data, including benign inflation prints and easing measures in G10 economies, signal supportive conditions for fixed income markets. The US data has been positive, but uncertainties surrounding the US elections create market hesitancy. EM local markets are in a relatively favorable position considering data trends and starting valuations, but the potential impact of the US election remains a significant concern.
Idiosyncratic Developments in EM
In EMEA-EM markets like Turkey and South Africa, improvements in fundamentals have boosted investor confidence, leading to inflows. Conversely, Latin American markets like Mexico and Brazil faced political shocks and fiscal concerns, resulting in market underperformance. The outlook for South Africa and Turkey appears optimistic, while Mexico and Brazil are navigating challenges related to the US election and fiscal policies.