Onramp Bitcoin Media The Sound Money Supercycle: Gold & Bitcoin vs. the Dollar
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Sep 6, 2025 In this engaging conversation, Jesse Kobernick, a corporate lawyer and Bitcoiner, dives into the intriguing dynamics of Bitcoin treasury companies and their variable market performance compared to Bitcoin itself. He sheds light on the historical comparison of gold and Bitcoin against the backdrop of a weakening dollar. The discussion also explores the challenges of self-custody and highlights multi-institutional custody solutions. As they predict a 'supercycle' for Bitcoin, they emphasize evolving risks and strategies in this ever-changing financial landscape.
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Why Treasury Stocks Lag Bitcoin
- Bitcoin treasury companies have underperformed Bitcoin and will likely oscillate with lower highs and lower lows.
- Structural risks and added management/custody layers explain persistent discounts to MNAV.
Retail Drives Treasury Volatility
- Many retail investors bought treasury stocks to outperform spot but lack the expertise to manage custody and capital raises.
- That mismatch produces reflexive sell-offs and amplifies underperformance.
Check The Business, Not Just The BTC
- Avoid treating Bitcoin treasury equities as 1:1 substitutes for holding BTC or guaranteed outperformance.
- Assess operating business, fees, and governance before allocating to a public treasury company.