Senan Kiran from Muzinich & Co sheds light on the complex world of covenants in the financial landscape. He discusses the growing trend of covenant pushback and underscores the importance of understanding document flexibility. The conversation touches on how the pandemic reshaped corporate finances, emphasizing the need for transparency in reporting and the evolving nature of financial metrics post-COVID. Kiran also talks about the challenges of pricing covenants and the significance of adapting to new economic realities.
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Quick takeaways
The pandemic has shifted investor sentiment towards a more cautious approach, emphasizing scrutiny on covenant flexibility and the true financial health of companies.
There is an ongoing concern about the accuracy of EBITDA adjustments during the pandemic, driving calls for transparency and more realistic financial assessments in covenant evaluations.
Deep dives
Investor Sentiment on Covenant Flexibility
The current sentiment among investors regarding covenant flexibility has shifted as a result of the pandemic. Initially, there was a willingness to accept looser covenants when the market was favorable, contributing to rapid bond issuance with aggressive terms. However, as the economic landscape became uncertain due to the coronavirus, investors have begun to scrutinize these covenants more closely. Factors such as the ability of issuers to extract value through restricted payment baskets and incremental debt are now focal points during investment evaluations, leading to a cautious approach toward highly flexible covenant packages.
The Impact of COVID-19 Adjustments on EBITDA
COVID-19 has significantly impacted how companies report EBITDA, with many including anomalies related to pandemic-related costs to present a more favorable financial picture. Investors are concerned about the validity of these adjustments, questioning whether they genuinely reflect the company's ongoing financial health. There is a consensus that relying on previous financial periods, such as full-year 2019 or inflated second-quarter figures, may not provide an accurate picture for current covenant assessments. As a result, investors advocate for a more normalized EBITDA figure that realistically depicts operational capacities amidst ongoing market turmoil.
Future of Covenants in Changing Markets
The future of covenants in European high yield markets remains uncertain as recent trends indicate a lack of significant pushback against aggressive covenant terms. Analysts suggest that market dynamics and investor sentiment will dictate whether covenant protections will strengthen or continue to weaken. If economic conditions deteriorate further, there may be a shift towards demanding stricter covenants in new issuances, though currently, the appetite for loose terms persists. Emphasizing the importance of transparency and information flow, investors are encouraged to evaluate the risks associated with covenant flexibilities to make informed decisions.
The Covenants by Reorg team speaks to Muzinich & Co’s Senan Kiran about the multiple factors driving covenant pushback, of which the credit story is just one; the use if flexibility in documents: Caveat Emptor - know your documents; and IFRS 16, calculating covenant capacities and campaigning to increase transparency.
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