The Naked Pravda Is Trump’s Venezuela operation a ‘gift to Putin,’ and what is the state of Russia’s ‘shadow fleet’?
14 snips
Jan 9, 2026 
Seva Gunitsky, a political scientist at the University of Toronto, and Craig Kennedy, a Russian oil expert from Harvard, delve into the intricate ties between Trump’s operation in Venezuela and its implications for Putin. Gunitsky reveals how Maduro’s ousting could ironically empower Putin's geopolitical vision. Kennedy discusses substantial Russian oil sanctions, the feasibility of a shadow fleet, and how access to Venezuelan oil might alleviate some of Russia's market pressures. Together, they explore whether this moment signals a pivotal shift in global power dynamics.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Trump Validates A 'Might Makes Right' World
- Seva Gunitsky argues Trump’s actions legitimize a world where great powers act with impunity.
- That permission structure aligns with Putin’s long-standing demand for a multipolar order.
Agentic Power Beats Material Weakness
- Putin compensates for weak material power with agentic political will and risk tolerance.
- That willingness to accept high costs lets Russia punch above its economic weight in foreign policy.
Europe Must Raise The Costs For Russia
- Gunitsky urges Europe to push back to break Russia's belief in impunity.
- Strong European deterrence, not Russian weakness, will halt spheres-of-influence logic.