There's A Long, Grinding Bear Market Coming | David Hay

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Jul 29, 2025

David Hay, former Chief Investment Officer at Evergreen Gavekal, shares his keen insights on the shifting landscape of the stock market. He discusses the potential for a long-grinding bear market amid rising debts and the implications of government financial strategies. Hay warns about speculative investing and rising consumer debt, touching on student loan crises. He explores emerging market bonds and innovative banking solutions, emphasizing the need for cautious, strategic financial planning as volatility looms on the horizon.

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INSIGHT

Unexpected Market Resurgence

The current market rally exceeds typical bear market bounce expectations, reaching new all-time highs.
This rebound reflects a drastic policy U-turn notably influenced by political changes and fiscal stimulus shifts.

INSIGHT

From K-Shaped to I-Shaped Economy

Wealth inequality intensifies as benefits from asset appreciation concentrate among the richest.
This trend may morph the K-shaped economy into an I-shaped economy, deepening division.

INSIGHT

Fed Balance Sheet & Inflation Link

Government spending and Fed's balance sheet expansion explosively increased post-2019, fueling inflation.
Policies resemble MMT with risks of hyperinflation despite low interest rates and debt monetization.

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The last time I interviewed today's guest was right after the stock market plunged 20% to its post-Liberation Day lows in April.Wall Street was stunned, as just a few months before, the market seemed unstoppable.Well, here we are three months later...and stocks have rocketed back to new highs.The fears that panicked investors so much back in April seem completely forgotten.What is going on and what's most likely to happen from here?To discuss, we're fortunate to be joined today by David Hay, the up-until-recently Chief Investment Officer & Principal at Evergreen Gavekal. He now publishes daily investing commentary on his excellent Haymaker Substack.

WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#bearmarket #deficit #debt 0:00 - Market Recovery3:01 - The Trump Turnaround10:26 - Debts, Deficits, and Fed Balance Sheet15:37 - Bond Market Breakouts23:16 - Emerging Market Bonds31:03 - Tariffs and Economic Impacts46:56 - Student Loans and Delinquencies52:42 - AI and Productivity58:01 - Crypto and Bitcoin Treasuries:1:10:22 - Investment Recommendations1:21:13 - New Harbor Update_____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.