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GM93: The Calm Before a Systemic Reckoning ft. William White

29 snips
Jan 7, 2026
Guest
William White
William White, a seasoned economist and former central banker, offers keen insights on the looming systemic risks in today's economy. He discusses how shifts from globalization to rising inflation are exposing vulnerabilities in public and private debt levels. White warns that policymakers face a tough balancing act between controlling inflation and maintaining debt sustainability. He also explores the risks of an AI-driven credit boom and the potential fragmentation of global currencies, all while questioning the reliability of current economic models.
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INSIGHT

Supply Shocks Are Permanently Reversing

  • Secular disinflation drivers have reversed into inflationary forces after the pandemic.
  • Deglobalization, adverse demographics, energy constraints and resilience needs raise long-term supply-side costs.
ANECDOTE

Central Banks Keep Rescuing Markets

  • Each crisis has shown central banks' capacity to 'pull the iron out of the fire.'
  • Past rescues moved hot money around rather than ending the risky behavior.
INSIGHT

Debt Leaves No Clean Exit

  • Ultra-easy monetary policy and fiscal expansion created record public and private debt.
  • High leverage makes economies fragile to either rising rates or falling revenues, leaving no easy exit.
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