No Stupid Questions 53. What’s the Secret to Making a Great Prediction?
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Dec 21, 2025 Explore the art of making accurate predictions, featuring the concepts of superforecasters versus experts and the importance of outside versus inside views. Discover the surprising traits that make superforecasters unique, like diverse sources and probabilistic thinking. The hosts also discuss coping with bad days, emphasizing learning from failure and employing reset strategies for a fresh start. Reflect on how successful people manage their ups and downs, and hear an amusing take on the everyday challenges we all face.
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Solomon's Unemotional Predictions
- Stephen describes his son Solomon making unemotional, accurate predictions in politics and sports.
- Solomon assigns probabilities and watches outcomes without letting emotions interfere.
Experts Are Overconfident Forecasters
- Experts often perform only slightly better than random at forecasting despite high confidence.
- Overconfidence and hindsight explanations make expert predictions misleading.
Start With The Outside View
- Use the outside view by starting with base rates of similar cases rather than focusing only on specifics.
- Calibrate inside-view details against those base rates to avoid optimism bias.