Vanda Felbab-Brown, a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, dives into Ecuador's escalating security crisis stemming from the rise of international criminal organizations. She discusses President Daniel Noboa's mano dura approach, highlighting its challenges amid soaring violence. The conversation unveils the complex ties between organized crime and local politics, and why replicating El Salvador's success under Nayib Bukele may be problematic for Ecuador. Tune in for a compelling look at the intersection of crime, security, and governance.
Ecuador's dramatic rise in violence is largely attributed to international criminal organizations and exacerbated by weakened governance and corruption.
President Noboa's 'mano dura' strategy aims to restore security through military involvement, but risks long-term human rights violations and institutional erosion.
Deep dives
Ecuador's Rising Insecurity
Ecuador has seen a dramatic increase in insecurity, transforming from one of the safest countries in Latin America to one plagued by violence, particularly driven by international criminal organizations. The homicide rate surged, with over 2,400 murders in the previous year alone, raising alarms among citizens. The emergence of powerful Mexican cartels, such as the Sinaloa cartel and Cartel Jalisco Nova Generación, has been pivotal in turning Ecuador into a major transportation hub for cocaine trafficking. Moreover, internal factors, including the rise of domestic gangs and significant cuts to security budgets, exacerbated this crisis, making it increasingly difficult for the state to maintain order.
Mano Dura Policies Under Noboa
President Daniel Noboa's administration has adopted a 'mano dura' approach, which emphasizes military involvement in policing and strict penalties for criminals. Inspired by successes and tactics in neighboring El Salvador, these policies aim to restore security in cities like Guayaquil, but carry significant risks of human rights abuses and a potential erosion of civil liberties. While initial results indicated a 16.5% drop in homicides, concerns abound over the sustainability of these improvements, especially given recent spikes in violence. The heavy-handed tactics may further entrench organized crime, particularly as external and internal pressures continue to grow.
Consequences for Governance and Society
Ecuador's situation reflects deep underlying issues in governance, where weakened institutions and rampant corruption hinder effective responses to crime. Noboa's reliance on military forces to combat organized crime raises questions about the long-term implications for civil governance and the rule of law. The infiltration of organized crime into local politics has created a dangerous climate where officials could face extortion and violence if they resist criminal demands. Without addressing these institutional weaknesses, the approach may lead to a cycle of violence and repression, potentially mirroring the authoritarian shifts observed in other Latin American countries.
Ecuador, once among the safest countries in Latin America, now faces an insecurity crisis with the incursion of international criminal groups. President Daniel Noboa, now facing a reelection fight, is attempting to convince voters his hardline mano dura approach is one of the reasons to stay the course. Vanda Felbab-Brown, a security expert at Brookings Institution, explains what caused a perfect storm of insecurity in the country, what Noboa’s approach has been so far, and why the success of Nayib Bukele of El Salvador may be tough to replicate in Ecuador.