John Fowler - "Xi Jinping will face the largest internal threat to his position"
Feb 17, 2024
auto_awesome
John Fowler, former Australian Diplomat, discusses China's internal threats, Australia's global positioning, and future international security trends. They explore the shift from a unipolar to a multipolar world order and the economic challenges facing China, including lack of consumer confidence and leadership issues.
China's economic regression poses an internal threat to Xi Jinping's leadership.
Africa shows economic potential with startups and youth optimism, facing challenges like political instability.
Latin America's economic trajectory is cautious, with Argentina facing turmoil and corruption challenges in Brazil and Mexico.
Deep dives
China's Economic Challenges and Political Direction
China is currently facing economic challenges, such as an over-leveraged real estate industry and low consumer confidence. The country's political direction under Xi Jinping is also being scrutinized, and there are potential internal threats to his position. The future of China's economic and political model remains uncertain.
Africa's Potential and Vibrancy
Africa is showing signs of economic potential and vibrancy, with a growing number of startups and a sense of optimism among its youth. While challenges like political instability and coups persist, Africa could produce tech unicorns and assert its independence in areas like credit ratings and cryptocurrency.
Latin America's Political Outlook and Economic Performance
Latin America's political outlook is cautious, with Argentina potentially undergoing economic turmoil due to a change in leadership. Brazil and Mexico may continue to underperform economically and face corruption challenges. While there are hopes for near-shoring and economic growth in the region, political factors may hinder progress.
The Contrarian View: Latin America vs. Africa
Contrary to traditional perceptions, Latin America may face challenges in fulfilling its economic potential, while Africa shows glimpses of growth and innovation. Argentina's economic trajectory is uncertain, while Brazil and Mexico may struggle to overcome corruption and unleash their economic potential.
Navigating Uncertainty and Making Tough Decisions
As global dynamics shift, countries like China, Africa, Latin America, and others will face challenges and have to make tough decisions. The ability to adapt and navigate uncertainty will be key to their success.
John Fowler, Co-founder of Intrigue Media and former Australian Diplomat joins Scott Smitson for the fourth edition of the Geopolitics of Commodities.
This is a wide-ranging conversation spanning the entire globe; from Australia and its geostrategic positioning within the great powers struggle, to its neighbor Indonesia and its latest elections, to South America and what to expect from the new Techno-Libertarian party led by Javier Milei, and for maybe the first time ever, real descension coming from with the Chinese Communist Party as China struggles through its worst economic regression in decades.
//
If you want a deeper look at the work we're doing here at Lykeion, investing at the intersection of markets and geopolitics, then you can go check out our work at: https://www.thelykeion.com
Get the Snipd podcast app
Unlock the knowledge in podcasts with the podcast player of the future.
AI-powered podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode
Save any moment
Hear something you like? Tap your headphones to save it with AI-generated key takeaways
Share & Export
Send highlights to Twitter, WhatsApp or export them to Notion, Readwise & more
AI-powered podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode