Matthew Eisler challenges the narrative that better batteries drove the growth of electric vehicles. He discusses the history of EV adoption, the metaphor of EVs as 'computers on wheels', the role of public policies in shaping the industry, and the significance of supply chains in supporting EV growth.
The resurgence of electric vehicles (EVs) in the US was primarily driven by public policies, business models, and social conditions, rather than just advancements in battery technology.
The metaphor of the electric car as a 'computer on wheels' played a pivotal role in the EV revival, enabling entrepreneurs from the consumer electronics and programming fields to bring fresh perspectives and transform the industry.
Deep dives
The History of Electric Vehicles: False Starts and Public Policy
Electric vehicles (EVs) have had two major false starts in history, one in the early 20th century and another in the 1990s-2000s. These false starts were not due to battery technology limitations, but rather public policy, business models, and social conditions. At the turn of the 20th century, EVs outnumbered and outperformed internal combustion vehicles in certain contexts, but the mass production of internal combustion vehicles during World War I and the 1920s, along with the Fordist production model, led to the decline of EVs. In the 1990s-2000s, automakers rolled out EVs on a demonstration basis to comply with environmental regulations, but they ultimately scrapped their electric car programs, fearing it would undermine their century-old business model. The revival of EVs in the 2010s was driven by a combination of economic and environmental crises, as well as the expansion of public policy support for zero-emission vehicles.
Reimagining the Electric Vehicle: The Computer on Wheels Metaphor
In Silicon Valley, the metaphor of the electric car as a 'computer on wheels' emerged, aligning with the innovation mindset prevalent in the late 1990s. This metaphor allowed entrepreneurs from the consumer electronics and programming fields to reimagine the EV by leveraging their existing expertise. It helped them tackle the unfamiliar technology of EVs and bring fresh perspectives to the industry. Detroit automakers, on the other hand, hesitated to embrace this metaphor, fearing that EVs would disrupt their traditional business models. This ultimately opened up space for Silicon Valley players like Tesla to enter the market and transform the perception and design of EVs.
Public Policy's Role in EV Resurgence
Public policy played a significant role in the resurgence of EVs. The Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) statute in California, part of the larger Low Emission Vehicle statute, compelled automakers to produce zero-emission vehicles. Initially, automakers resisted producing battery electric vehicles (BEVs) due to concerns about profitability and business model disruption. They rolled out BEVs on a demonstration basis to satisfy air quality regulations but later withdrew these programs, symbolically destroying the vehicles. The revival of EVs came during an economic crisis in the late 2000s, when the Obama administration restructured the automaking industry and directed it to invest in alternative propulsion technologies. This helped Tesla and other Silicon Valley companies gain momentum and shift the industry's focus towards BEVs.
Challenges and Complexities of EV Supply Chains and Grid Integration
The EV industry heavily relies on global supply chains and established expertise in Asian countries that manufacture consumer electronics. Trying to reconfigure this system and bring manufacturing back to the United States would be challenging due to the optimization of the American consumer electronics industry around semiconductors and the lack of industrial enterprises applying new knowledge in the US. Additionally, the relationship between EVs and the electrical grid raises concerns about systems integration and the impacts on infrastructure. The lack of stakeholder discussion about the energy conversion infrastructure and the scaling of EV fleets has led to potential problems in grid management and compatibility. The complex dynamics of supply chains and grid integration pose ongoing challenges for the EV industry.
In 2022, there were more than 2 million electric vehicles, or EVs, on the road in the United States. In 2005, there were only about 1,000. The conventional wisdom credits better batteries with this remarkable growth. In the 2010s, engineers delivered batteries that cost less and could go many miles further. Consequently, driving range increased, costs decreased, and sales soared. EVs now compete with vehicles powered by traditional internal combustion engines.
But Matthew Eisler (University of Strathclyde) challenges this narrative. He argues that the US resurgence in EVs had little to do with technology and much more to do with public policies, business models, and social conditions. On this episode, Eisler talks with host Jason Lloyd about the complex history of EV adoption, how a powerful metaphor invited new players into car manufacturing, and what the EV revival might mean for infrastructure such as electric grids.