The Rest Is Money 229. BUDGET BONUS: Did the Treasury Lie?
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Nov 29, 2025 The hosts dive into the recent financial chaos, questioning the Chancellor's claims about a public finance disaster. They dissect the Office for Budget Responsibility's criticisms and explore the mysterious income tax U-turn. Key discussions include the fallout from a November press conference that hinted at a fiscal emergency and the subsequent revelations about Treasury briefing inaccuracies. The episode examines whether the Treasury misled the public and what the ramifications could be for the UK's financial integrity.
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Productivity Downgrade Fueled Fiscal Fear
- The OBR's productivity downgrade created talk of a large fiscal hole that pressured the Chancellor.
- That framing set expectations that taxes would need to rise significantly before full numbers emerged.
Press Conference Created Crisis Narrative
- Rachel Reeves' November 4 press conference painted an unprecedented crisis without giving numbers.
- The tone implied an imminent tax hike, shaping media and market expectations ahead of the budget.
U‑Turn Attributed To Better Revenue Forecasts
- The FT reported a U-turn on raising the basic rate of income tax on November 13.
- Treasury briefings blamed higher wage and inflation forecasts for removing the need to raise the basic rate.