The Driven Tony Seba on the rapid switch to EVs
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May 10, 2023 Tony Seba, a renowned technologist and futurist from Stanford University, shares his insights with Daniel Bleakley about the rapid shift toward electric vehicles. They discuss predictable cost reductions in EV technology and how these changes are reshaping the automotive landscape. Seba highlights the electric revolution's impact on transportation, particularly in China, and notes the geopolitical transformations brought about by energy innovation. Their conversation also touches on the rising EV sales in Australia and the challenges that manufacturers face in keeping up with consumer demand.
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Predictable Cost Curves
- Technology cost curves predictably decline over time, similar to gravity.
- Predicting a technology's future cost involves analyzing these curves.
Battery Cost Prediction
- In 2014, Tony Seba predicted battery costs would fall from $500/kWh to $100/kWh by 2023.
- This prediction was met with skepticism and disbelief.
Horse to Car Transition
- The shift from horse-drawn carriages to automobiles completed within 20 years, despite major world events.
- The most significant change, from 10% to 90% adoption, occurred within a single decade.