Rajan Menon, an international relations expert and professor at The City College of New York, delves into Ukraine's surprising military strategy of invading Russia after 30 months of conflict. This unprecedented move aims to boost domestic morale and challenge Russian perceptions of the war. Menon discusses the chaos within the Russian military in response and the complexities of Ukraine's territorial ambitions, including risks from counterattacks and the hurdles posed by untrained conscripts. He also analyzes Putin's attempts to maintain control amid these significant challenges.
Ukraine's surprising military incursion into Russia exposes significant vulnerabilities in the Russian military's intelligence and defense capabilities, creating embarrassment for Putin.
The strategic purpose of Ukraine's invasion is to gain leverage for future political negotiations, potentially altering the conflict's balance of power.
Deep dives
Surprising Military Incursion
Ukrainian forces have successfully executed a surprising military incursion into Russia, marking the first major foreign incursion there since World War II. Videos show Ukrainian soldiers removing the Russian flag in a small town, reflecting both a message to their supporters and an acknowledgment to the Russian populace about the unprecedented attack. This incursion, initially met with little resistance, has exposed significant intelligence failures within the Russian military, leaving them scrambling to reinforce their defenses. The rapid advance into regions like Khursk has highlighted the strategic planning and execution capabilities of the Ukrainian military that caught everyone, including American intelligence, off guard.
Putin's Response and Military Leadership
In the aftermath of the incursion, Vladimir Putin's response has been measured, as he attempts to maintain an image of control while facing significant military embarrassment. Despite publicly addressing the situation, he has downplayed the implications of the Ukrainian advance, focusing instead on the broader need for defense. Internally, the Russian military command is facing severe criticism from nationalist bloggers for their inability to prevent this surprise attack. This situation serves as a pivotal moment for Putin's leadership, exposing vulnerabilities in Russia's military strategy, reminiscent of historic defeats.
Strategic Outcomes and Political Leverage
Ukraine's ultimate aim with this incursion seems to be to create leverage for future political negotiations in the ongoing conflict. By securing territory within Russia, Ukraine seeks to alter the balance of power and enhance its bargaining position, potentially leading to a political settlement. The successful hold of this territory could shift public opinion on both sides, favoring a move towards negotiations as many in both Russia and Ukraine express a desire for peace. However, sustaining control over the captured land poses logistical challenges, and the outcome of this maneuver could significantly influence the war going forward.