Barry Ritholtz discusses contrarian investing with Michael J. Mauboussin, Head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global, Morgan Stanley Investment Management. They explore the challenges of going against the crowd, the role of asset prices in decision-making, and the importance of diversity and incentives. They also discuss the evolutionary reasons behind conformity, the use of violent metaphors in contrarian investing, and the impact of investor expectations on this strategy.
Overcoming the fear of going against the majority can be a significant barrier in contrarian investing.
Institutional and career-related factors discourage going against the majority in investing, limiting the ability to generate above-average returns.
Deep dives
The Difficulty of Going Against the Crowd
Going against the crowd can be extremely challenging due to the natural human inclination to follow the majority. Asset prices, which are meant to provide information, often influence our decisions, leading us to buy when prices go up and sell when they go down. Market efficiency, driven by the wisdom of crowds, suggests that the crowd is usually right. However, when diversity is compromised and individual thinking is replaced by correlated views, the madness of crowds can occur. Evolutionarily, humans have a preference for staying within the group for safety, making it difficult to stand outside the crowd. Overcoming the fear of going against the majority can be a significant barrier.
Organizational Constraints and Career Risk
Institutional and career-related factors discourage going against the majority in investing. Investment businesses often prioritize gathering assets over generating excess returns, leading to the launch of funds that capitalize on popular asset classes or industries. Career risk plays a significant role as going against the crowd and being wrong can lead to job loss. Conforming to conventional thinking reduces career risk, but it also hampers the ability to generate above-average returns. As economist John Maynard Keynes noted, reputation is often better preserved by failing conventionally than succeeding unconventionally.
Contrarian Investing and Understanding Expectations
Contrarian investing involves examining the other side of the coin and evaluating asset prices based on the combination of contrarian thinking and a calculator. Investor expectations play a crucial role in contrarian investing. When expectations become unduly optimistic, it can be an opportunity to sell, while unduly pessimistic expectations create buying opportunities. Distinguishing between fundamentals and expectations is important, as expectations can diverge from actual fundamentals. By understanding and assessing investor expectations, contrarian investors can identify potential opportunities in the market.
Is contrarian investing a solid strategy, or a fool's errand? In this episode, Barry Ritholtz discusses the issue with Michael J. Mauboussin. Mauboussin is Head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global, Morgan Stanley Investment Management. Previously, he was Director of Research at BlueMountain Capital, Head of Global Financial Strategies at Credit Suisse, and Chief Investment Strategist at Legg Mason Capital Management.