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Masters in Business

At the Money: Contrarian Investing

Jan 3, 2024
Barry Ritholtz discusses contrarian investing with Michael J. Mauboussin, Head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global, Morgan Stanley Investment Management. They explore the challenges of going against the crowd, the role of asset prices in decision-making, and the importance of diversity and incentives. They also discuss the evolutionary reasons behind conformity, the use of violent metaphors in contrarian investing, and the impact of investor expectations on this strategy.
12:09

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • Overcoming the fear of going against the majority can be a significant barrier in contrarian investing.
  • Institutional and career-related factors discourage going against the majority in investing, limiting the ability to generate above-average returns.

Deep dives

The Difficulty of Going Against the Crowd

Going against the crowd can be extremely challenging due to the natural human inclination to follow the majority. Asset prices, which are meant to provide information, often influence our decisions, leading us to buy when prices go up and sell when they go down. Market efficiency, driven by the wisdom of crowds, suggests that the crowd is usually right. However, when diversity is compromised and individual thinking is replaced by correlated views, the madness of crowds can occur. Evolutionarily, humans have a preference for staying within the group for safety, making it difficult to stand outside the crowd. Overcoming the fear of going against the majority can be a significant barrier.

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