The Journal.

Is the Economy Getting Better or Worse? The Fed Says It's Hard to Tell

104 snips
Oct 30, 2025
Nick Timiraos, Chief Economics Correspondent at The Wall Street Journal, dives into the complexities of the Fed's economic outlook. He discusses how the recent interest rate cut obscures the Fed's visibility due to missing government data. Timiraos highlights the ongoing tension between inflation and the weakening labor market, stressing that December's rate cut is uncertain. He also points out the challenges posed by the government shutdown and mixed economic signals like strong consumer spending amidst slowing job growth.
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INSIGHT

Fed Driving In A Data Fog

  • The government shutdown created a “data blackout” that left the Fed driving monetary policy in the fog.
  • Nick Timiraos says missing high-quality statistics makes calibrating policy decisions much harder.
INSIGHT

Two Boogeymen Pulling Fed Apart

  • Inflation and a weakening labor market are pulling the Fed in opposite directions.
  • Nick Timiraos notes that this split already made policy decisions delicate before the shutdown.
ADVICE

Use Private Data With Caution

  • The Fed looks at private-sector indicators like ADP payrolls, surveys, and reserve-bank anecdotes when government data is unavailable.
  • Policymakers should weigh these imperfect signals cautiously because anecdotes can mislead.
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