Gary Cohn, former US National Economic Council Director, discusses the normalization of the Fed cycle, the compounding effect of inflation, and why people feel bad despite a good economy. They also explore factors influencing economic sentiment, analyze economic data and tax cuts, and discuss the impact of 2017 tax cuts on the US economy, including misconceptions. Additionally, they delve into the potential implementation of a tariff wall and the significance of the electoral process.
Gary Cohn highlights the need to return to a more normal economic state with positive yield curves and risk premiums.
Cohn emphasizes the impact of inflation on consumer psychology, urging consideration of its compounding effects on purchasing power and debt.
Deep dives
The Need to Return to Normal
The podcast episode discusses the importance of returning to normalcy in the United States economy after a period of abnormal monetary policies. The guest speaker, Gary Cohn, reflects on the pre-2008 financial crisis era when the Federal Reserve meetings did not dominate financial markets. He emphasizes that the current prolonged zero interest rate policy has led to increased risk-taking behavior as investors search for higher returns. Cohn believes that the country is now at the beginning of a transition back to a more normal economic state, characterized by positive yield curves and risk premiums.
The Impact of Inflation and Consumer Behavior
The episode highlights the impact of inflation on consumer psychology and behavior. Cohn explains that due to the compounding effect of inflation, consumers feel a significant increase in the price of goods over time. This, coupled with the fact that people are working harder and taking on more jobs, leads to concerns about purchasing power. Although wages may currently exceed inflation, Cohn cautions that the long-term effects on consumer debt and purchasing power need to be considered.
The Importance of Tax Cuts and Tariffs
Cohn discusses the significance of the 2017 tax cuts and their positive effects on the economy. He credits the tax cuts for facilitating the repatriation of foreign money and spurring manufacturing growth in the United States. Additionally, Cohn emphasizes that the tax cuts provided real disposable income to hardworking individuals, contrary to the belief that they would result in a recession. He also acknowledges the potential impact of tariffs as a government revenue source but cautions that discussions on their implementation and expiration need careful consideration.
IBM Vice Chairman and former US National Economic Council Director under the Trump administration Gary Cohn says the Fed cycle is finally becoming more normal. Speaking to Bloomberg Surveillance host Jonathan Ferro, Lisa Abramowicz, and Annmarie Hordern, Cohn adds US consumers partly feel bad though because of the peculiar compounding effect of inflation.