EVENT: Sir Lawrence Freedman on the war in Ukraine
Aug 26, 2024
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Sir Lawrence Freedman, an eminent military historian and strategist, delves into the complexities of the war in Ukraine. He discusses the stagnation in peace talks and ongoing military innovations. The implications of a potential Trump administration on U.S. support for Ukraine raise important questions. Freedman reflects on his early analyses, revealing changing perspectives on the conflict. He draws parallels between Ukraine's future and other garrison states, highlighting its evolving defense capabilities amidst the geopolitical upheaval.
The war's outcome will depend on the political concessions both Ukraine and Russia are willing to negotiate amidst their territorial ambitions.
Both sides have implemented significant military innovations, particularly in drone usage, impacting the dynamics of battlefield engagements.
Deep dives
Complexity of Military Victory
Neither Ukraine nor Russia currently possesses a clear path to military victory in the ongoing conflict, highlighting the multifaceted nature of the war. While Ukraine has succeeded in asserting a maritime advantage, the situation on land remains deadlocked, with Russia posing significant threats to Ukrainian infrastructure. The outcome of the war will likely hinge not solely on military success but also on the political decisions and concessions both sides are prepared to make to reach a resolution. The stark differences in territorial ambitions – with Ukraine seeking to reclaim its territory and Russia aiming to expand its holdings – add layers of complexity to the negotiations and potential peace agreements.
Challenges in Ceasefire Negotiations
Achieving a ceasefire is fraught with significant challenges due to contrasting objectives and the entrenched positions of both Ukraine and Russia. While Ukraine is unwilling to cede control over any occupied territories, the Russian government demands not only the current land it occupies but also the reintegration of Crimea. This impasse is exacerbated by unresolved questions regarding security guarantees, reparations, and the prosecution of war crimes, all of which complicate the dialogue and create a lengthy agenda for negotiation. The possibility of a simple ceasefire does not serve either nation’s long-term interests, given the potential for continued unrest and instability in the region.
Military Adaptations and Innovations
Both Ukraine and Russia have exhibited significant military innovations throughout the conflict, particularly in their use of drones which have changed the dynamics of battlefield engagements. Ukraine has successfully developed a proactive defense strategy leveraging drones for reconnaissance and targeting, while Russia has focused on traditional warfare tactics, facing morale and resource challenges among its troops. Although the conflict has demonstrated that gaining and holding territory remains difficult, both sides are continuously adapting their strategies based on lessons learned from previous encounters. As the war evolves, the balance between defense and offense becomes increasingly critical, along with the ability to innovate in combat scenarios.
Eminent military historian and strategist Sir Lawrence Freedman talks with the Lowy Institute’s Sam Roggeveen about whether there is a plausible path towards peace or a ceasefire, the implications of a Trump Administration on support for Ukraine’s war effort, whether Russia’s attacks on Ukrainian civilian targets are working, and innovations on the battlefield. Roggeveen also asks Freedman: what did you get wrong in your early analysis of the war? Recorded on Wednesday 24 July 2024