
Lowy Institute
EVENT: Sir Lawrence Freedman on the war in Ukraine
Aug 26, 2024
Sir Lawrence Freedman, an eminent military historian and strategist, delves into the complexities of the war in Ukraine. He discusses the stagnation in peace talks and ongoing military innovations. The implications of a potential Trump administration on U.S. support for Ukraine raise important questions. Freedman reflects on his early analyses, revealing changing perspectives on the conflict. He draws parallels between Ukraine's future and other garrison states, highlighting its evolving defense capabilities amidst the geopolitical upheaval.
35:36
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Quick takeaways
- The war's outcome will depend on the political concessions both Ukraine and Russia are willing to negotiate amidst their territorial ambitions.
- Both sides have implemented significant military innovations, particularly in drone usage, impacting the dynamics of battlefield engagements.
Deep dives
Complexity of Military Victory
Neither Ukraine nor Russia currently possesses a clear path to military victory in the ongoing conflict, highlighting the multifaceted nature of the war. While Ukraine has succeeded in asserting a maritime advantage, the situation on land remains deadlocked, with Russia posing significant threats to Ukrainian infrastructure. The outcome of the war will likely hinge not solely on military success but also on the political decisions and concessions both sides are prepared to make to reach a resolution. The stark differences in territorial ambitions – with Ukraine seeking to reclaim its territory and Russia aiming to expand its holdings – add layers of complexity to the negotiations and potential peace agreements.
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