Munk Dialogue with Sarah Paine: the rise of the Russia-China axis
Feb 22, 2024
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Experts discuss the rise of the Russia-China axis and its threat to global stability. They analyze the aggressive behaviors of Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, the geopolitical dynamics between the West, Russia, and China, and the importance of the international rules-based order. The dialogue emphasizes the need for strategic responses to prevent a devastating global war in the 21st century.
Putin's unlimited objectives in conflicts pose risks for negotiations and highlight potential dangers of compromising with such stances.
Assessing the differing values of victory for parties involved in conflicts aids in understanding motivations, risks, and implications for global stability.
Deep dives
Redefining Objectives in Warfare
When analyzing wars, the distinction between limited and unlimited objectives is crucial. Limited objectives allow for negotiation, while unlimited objectives indicate total defeat of the opponent without compromise. Understanding Putin's unlimited objectives in the Ukraine conflict, as revealed in a Tucker Carlson interview, highlights the potential risks of negotiating with such a stance.
The Value of Objects in Conflict
Assessing the value of victory for different parties involved in conflicts, such as Putin's objectives in Ukraine, illuminates their motivations and risks. Putin's perceived enormous value in annexing territory contrasts with the differing levels of existential importance for various parties like Zelensky and the Ukrainian people. Understanding these values helps navigate potential resolutions and implications for wider geopolitical stability.
Implications of Sanctions and Strategic Objectives
Sanctions play a critical role in imposing costs and shaping behaviors in geopolitical struggles, as seen in responses to Russian and Chinese aggression. By aligning strategic values and costs with national interests, the West seeks to curb hostile actions and deter prolonged conflicts through economic pressures. Understanding the economic consequences of military actions guides decisions on interventions and diplomatic engagements.
Challenges of Maintaining the Liberal International Order
Debates surrounding American power projection, global engagement, and defense of the liberal international order reveal complex considerations and public sentiments. The interconnectedness of economies, maritime rules-based orders, and historical parallels underscore the necessity of prudent foreign policy decisions to prevent conflicts from escalating. Balancing domestic concerns with international responsibilities remains a key challenge in navigating contemporary geopolitical complexities.
Most geopolitical experts agree that we have entered into a new cold war. The rise of the China-Russia axis and its threat to the international rules-based order is of growing concern to western powers. On this Munk Dialogue, we’re speaking with Sarah Paine, University Professor of History and Grand Strategy at the US Naval War College. Sarah explains what is motivating leaders like Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin to act aggressively towards their neighbours, and how western powers should respond to these acts of aggression. In short: what can we learn about the wars of the 20th century to prevent a devastating global war in the 21st?
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Senior Producer: Ricki Gurwitz
Editor: Kieran Lynch
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