#1300 Reflexivity & Elementus | Bitcoin Network Data Is VERY BULLISH
Jan 25, 2024
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Will Clemente, Max Galka, and Alex Mologoko discuss a comprehensive report on Bitcoin's on-chain events in 2023, covering topics such as the Bitcoin rally, open interest, wallet activity, inscriptions, stablecoins, and more. They explore factors affecting Bitcoin's price performance, the significance of stable coins in the crypto ecosystem, controversy surrounding inscriptions on the Bitcoin blockchain, and data collection methods.
Bitcoin's price performance in 2023 was influenced by mean reversion, liquidity cycle inflection points, and anticipation of Bitcoin ETF approvals and launches.
Advancements in on-chain data and wallet attribution provided by Elementus offer crucial insights for trading strategies and market trend analysis.
Deep dives
Bitcoin's price performance in 2023
Bitcoin's price performance in 2023 was driven by mean reversion, inflection points in the liquidity cycle, and the anticipation of Bitcoin ETF approvals and launches. The report analyzes on-chain data to identify the type of market participants driving Bitcoin's rally. It highlights the increased Bitcoin holdings in Coinbase Prime, activity within different trading sessions, and the surge in activity around CME. The dominance of US-based market participants and their traditional finance orientation is observed as a key factor in driving Bitcoin's growth.
Insights on on-chain data and wallet attribution
The report delves into the advancements in on-chain data and wallet attribution provided by Elementus. It explains the clustering and attribution techniques used to identify wallet owners and their activities. The analysis of wallet activities reveals insights into BTC cost basis, where Bitcoin miners stand relative to the underlying asset, and the movements of Bitcoin not being used for transactions. These insights are instrumental in formulating trading strategies and analyzing market trends.
The rise of inscriptions and its impact on fees and miners
The report highlights the significance of inscriptions on the Bitcoin blockchain, enabled by the Taproot soft fork in 2021. Inscriptions allow for the storage of metadata attached to individual satoshis. The surge in inscriptions activity, particularly in the fourth quarter of 2023, resulted in over $200 million in transaction fees and showcased Bitcoin as the top blockchain by transaction fees. This trend also contributed to increasing hash rate as miners sought to capture higher revenues. The report suggests that the expansion of inscriptions activity could have a significant impact on public mining equities.
The growing role of stablecoins in the crypto ecosystem
Stablecoins, such as USDT, USDC, and BUSD, are recognized as the backbone of the rapidly growing crypto ecosystem. The report explores the trends in stablecoin market capitalization and aggregate velocity of money. It analyzes the contraction and subsequent expansion of stablecoin market cap, identifying factors such as the Silicon Valley bank run and the shutdown of Binance USD. The report highlights the importance of stablecoins as payment rails and defi instruments, and their potential impact on the forthcoming Bitcoin halving and speculative phases of a bull market.
Today’s episode is a joint podcast with the team at Reflexivity Research and the team at Elementus. From Reflexivity, we have Will Clemente (Founder). From Elementus we have, Max Galka (Founder & CEO) and Alex Mologoko (Head of Research). This conversation covers a brand new massive report covering year-in-review of 2023 of everything that happened on-chain. Topics include bitcoin rally, open interest, wallet activity, inscriptions, stablecoins, and more.
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