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Darius Dale, Founder & CEO of 42Macro, discusses their macro weather forecast and the breakdown of Bitcoin and the pre-halving cycle. They analyze asset class signals, Bitcoin's price patterns before halvings, and speculate on increasing the inflation target.
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Quick takeaways
- The macro weather model developed by 42 Macro provides real-time insights on key macro market drivers, enabling investors to make informed portfolio decisions.
- Bitcoin experiences volatility and drawdowns in the year leading up to a halving, but historical data suggests that it can still perform well in the long term, especially in comparison to traditional bond markets.
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The Weather Model and Macro Market Drivers
The weather model developed by 42 Macro helps infuse volatility targeting into their dynamic position sizing process for asset allocation and factor exposure. This model combines macro regime analysis and key macro market drivers to provide real-time insights. The current model indicates that growth is expected to trend lower over the next 12 months, inflation is trending lower, unemployment rates are expected to rise, and there is fiscal support for the growth side. On the financial side, liquidity is trending lower, credit through domestic and global broad money supply is decreasing, and there are indications of bearish sentiment in commodities and US equity positioning. Investors should consider the three-month outlook for different asset classes and factor dispersion in the Goldilocks regime when making portfolio decisions.
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