The DC Today - Wednesday April 19, 2023

Today's Post -

Day-to-day bond volatility continues to be quite elevated, and very few are really talking about it. I believe as QT inevitably moves to QE (or at least non-QT), you will see bond volatility come down. Equity volatility already has. 80% of days in January were up or down > 1%, 74% in February, 65% in March, and just 36% so far in April. Hmmmm …

I have spoken a lot lately about the American consumer slowing down only when they lose access to credit. Until then, spend spend spend (in fact, the predominant economic philosophy of American policy for the last 75 years has actually sought to intellectually codify this behavior as our patriotic duty). Revolving credit right now is 6.2% of disposable income, not even up to the 6.6% average it was for the last ten years, let alone near the 9% level it averaged in the decade up to the financial crisis. All that to say – debt levels for consumers seem high; debt levels as a percentage of income are not. So my expectation is … spend, spend, spend.

Beware of people who tell you, “The consumer is about to crash and burn,” when they have been saying that over and over and over and over again for years. There is an incorrigibility to perma-bears that can only be called dishonest if we don’t see it all for what it is.

Also, who cares if people spend a little less and save a little more? Do you really, actually, seriously think that would be a bad thing? Come on.

Anyways, another pretty boring day in markets and all the recap is below, along with a great question on commercial real estate and the banking sector.

Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com