The podcast explores the achievements of Mike Vickers as the strategist who drove the Russian army out of Afghanistan, and discusses strategies for Ukraine in its conflict with Russia. It also delves into the challenges of arming Ukraine and the concept of under reach in decision-making.
31:45
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Quick takeaways
Providing the right mix of weapons, ammunition, and strategies, such as the introduction of the Stinger anti-aircraft missile, can be a game-changer in driving an invading force out of a country.
To successfully defend Ukraine against a conventional war, they need longer-range missile artillery, more ammunition, and most importantly, air superiority, which requires a comprehensive mix of capabilities strategically employed.
Deep dives
The Strategic Architect of the Covert Afghan War
Mike Vickers, a brainy weapons expert, played a major role in the covert war in Afghanistan. As the CIA's Ace in the Hole, Vickers developed a precise blueprint for driving the Russian army out of Afghanistan in the 1980s. He focused on providing the Afghan resistance with the right mix of weapons, ammunition, and strategies. One of the game-changers was the introduction of the American-made Stinger anti-aircraft missile, which neutralized Soviet air power and ultimately led to the Russian withdrawal. Vickers' insights and experiences offer valuable lessons for understanding modern conflicts such as the current situation in Ukraine.
The Challenges of Fighting an Overt Conventional War
While there are similarities between the Afghan war in the 1980s and the war in Ukraine, there are also important differences. Ukraine is facing an overt conventional war against Russia, and the battle space is more confined. The US is urging Ukraine to fight in a way that the US military wouldn't, making it an almost impossible mission. To successfully defend Ukraine, Vickers believes they need longer-range missile artillery, more ammunition, and most importantly, air superiority. In conflicts, winning quickly, before the US can bring its combat power to bear, is crucial. However, providing just a single weapon system is not enough to guarantee victory. It requires a comprehensive mix of capabilities strategically employed.
The Porcupine Strategy and Lessons for the Future
To prevent a successful invasion and create a deterrent force, Vickers suggests implementing a porcupine strategy in Taiwan, where the primary goal is to make it hard to conquer. This involves providing continuity of government communications, engaging in whole-of-nation national resistance efforts, and deploying specific capabilities that can make any amphibious landing highly costly for the aggressor. Vickers also highlights the lessons that can be derived from the Ukraine conflict for China, where strategies for achieving a quick win and countering potential US intervention are being considered. Vickers stresses the importance of understanding the risks of both overreach and underreach in decision-making when it comes to conflicts and the consequences of doing nothing.
Hollywood may have portrayed him as a nerd, but Mike Vickers was the superstar architect of America’s covert war in the 1980s that drove the Soviet army out of Afghanistan. And this alum of the Green Berets and the CIA has some ideas about how to do the same thing in Ukraine today.