Elizabeth Economy, an expert on U.S.-China relations from the Hoover Institution, discusses the shifting dynamics of the trade war and U.S. tariffs, emphasizing China's strategic responses. Ethan Harris, former Head of Research at Bank of America, shares insights on the potential economic landscape post-Federal Reserve, shedding light on risks of recession and the evolving role of tariffs. They both highlight the challenges and uncertainties that these trade policies present to international markets and local economies.
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insights INSIGHT
International Markets' Uncertain Future
The dramatic outperformance of international markets early 2025 may not continue amid slowing growth and policy uncertainty.
Despite current trends, the best multi-asset portfolio companies are likely still predominantly U.S.-based.
volunteer_activism ADVICE
Risk Management in Uncertain Markets
Reduce equity risk and add bonds to hedge amidst heightened economic uncertainty.
Consider increasing gold exposure to mitigate risks linked to uncertainty and potential shifts in dollar-denominated asset allocations.
volunteer_activism ADVICE
Credit Opportunities Amid Recession Fears
Favor the belly of the bond curve and cautiously increase credit risk for higher yields.
Even a mild recession supports opportunities in high-quality corporate credit at attractive returns.
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In 'The River Runs Black', Elizabeth C. Economy explores China's growing environmental crisis, tracing its economic and political roots and discussing the leadership's evolving response. The book highlights how China's environmental degradation has led to public health issues, mass migration, and economic losses, while also comparing China's approach with international experiences.
The World According to China
The World According to China
Elizabeth Economy
The third revolution
A Study of Psychiatry and Religion
Stern, Karl.
In 'The Third Revolution: A Study of Psychiatry and Religion', Karl Stern delves into the relationship between psychiatric practices and religious beliefs. The book reflects Stern's unique perspective as a convert from Judaism to Roman Catholicism and his extensive experience in psychiatric research. It examines how these two fields interact and influence each other, providing insights into the psychological and spiritual dimensions of human experience.
Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF. Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyApril 29th, 2025 Featuring: 1) Russ Koesterich, Global Head of Investment Strategy for BlackRock Scientific Active Equities, joins for a discussion on near term volatility in stocks and whether the bull run in international stocks is set to slow. Investors are tracking a stream of data for clues on the health of the American economy and prospects for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts, with some experts warning of the risk of recession in the US. Tariffs continued to dominate headlines, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent saying the US has put China to the side for now as it seeks trade deals with 15 to 17 other countries. 2) Elizabeth Economy, Hargrove senior fellow and co-director of the U.S., China and the world program at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, joins for a discussion on US-China relations and who has the upper hand in a trade war. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi warned countries against giving in to US tariff threats, saying it would only embolden the "bully". Wang's remarks came as the Trump administration hinted at using new trade tools to pressure Beijing, and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested banning certain exports to China to gain leverage. 3) Ethan Harris, former Head of Research at Bank of America, talks about a potential golden age for the US economy and what a post-Powell Federal Reserve would look like. Currently, Fed Chair Jay Powell is trying to prevent price increases from spreading through the economy due to Donald Trump's tariffs, earning him the nickname "Mr. Too Late" from the president. The Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged at their next meeting, and Powell has emphasized the need to keep longer-term inflation expectations anchored to prevent a one-time price increase from becoming an ongoing inflation problem. 4) Dr. David Dodge, former Governor of the Central Bank of Canada, joins to discuss Mark Carney's victory in the Canadian election. Canada's Liberal Party, led by Carney, is projected to win a fourth consecutive election, but with a narrow margin of victory. Carney's win represents a major turnaround for the Liberals, and he has pledged to focus on strengthening Canada's economic independence and standing up to US President Trump in a trade war. 5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including Fortune's story on a harsh new reality when it comes to groceries and inflation and Business Insider's look at how a Chinese mobile dating game is getting single women across Asia to open their hearts and wallets.
Bloomberg Surveillance 
