Prof G Markets Warner Bros. Rejects Paramount’s Hostile Bid
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Dec 18, 2025 
Rohan Goswami, a business reporter at Semafor, dives into Warner Bros. Discovery's decision to reject Paramount's bid, explaining the appeal of Netflix's offer. He highlights financing risks and the complex dynamics affecting investor confidence. Joining him is Alice Han, a China economist at Greenmantle, who discusses China's record trade surplus and questions surrounding weak fixed investments. She also analyzes geopolitical relationships and anticipates continued reliance on export-led growth for China in 2026.
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Choice Of Certainty Over Bigger Price
- Warner Bros. prefers Netflix's $83B offer because it buys only the streaming and studios assets, avoiding problematic linear TV assets like CNN.
- The board values certainty and a cleaner path to closing over a larger headline price from Paramount.
Hidden Risk In The Higher Bid
- Paramount's $108B bid includes the problematic linear TV networks, increasing regulatory and execution risk compared with Netflix's targeted asset purchase.
- Warner's board is worried about how Paramount values and finances those assets, not just the headline bid.
Financing Structure Undermines Credibility
- Paramount's financing relied on a complex consortium (sovereign funds, Apollo, banks, Kushner) which raised doubts about stability.
- Jared Kushner's Affinity pullout amplified concerns about the coalition's determinism to close the deal.