Reducing cartel violence in Mexico, and what to read and see this fall
Sep 21, 2023
auto_awesome
A mathematician and an executive director discuss using math to analyze cartel violence in Mexico. They explore the complexity of cartels, recruitment strategies, and potential solutions. The podcast also covers a fall review of science books, video games, and movies, as well as exhibitions on the power of music and the Grand Egyptian Museum. They discuss the chilling implications of facial recognition technology and the impact of fire on the land.
Reducing recruitment is essential in shrinking Mexican cartels and reducing cartel violence.
Addressing the underlying issues and systemic changes are crucial in tackling the growth of cartels in Mexico.
Deep dives
Reducing Cartel Violence in Mexico
Mathematician Rafael Criotto Corio created a model to study the cartel population and activities, and determine the best way to reduce violence is to cut back on their recruitment. The size of the cartels and their recruitment process were analyzed using a mathematical approach. The results showed that reducing recruitment could be more effective than increasing law enforcement efforts in reducing cartel violence.
Challenges in Tackling Cartel Violence
Despite the insights gained from the mathematical model, tackling cartel violence in Mexico remains a complex challenge. The integration of cartels into various aspects of society, regional disparities, and corruption involving political actors add layers of complexity to the issue. Addressing recruitment and reducing the role of cartels as job providers and recruiters is crucial, but it is not a quick fix solution.
The Scale and Impact of Cartels in Mexico
The research revealed that cartels in Mexico have a significant impact, with an estimated population of 160,000 to 185,000 individuals involved in cartel activities. This makes cartels the fifth-largest employer in the country. The recruitment process targets vulnerable individuals, particularly teenagers, who face a high risk of imprisonment or death within 10 years of joining a cartel.
The Need for Systemic Change
The study also highlights the importance of systemic change and addressing the underlying issues that contribute to the growth of cartels. These include social and economic factors, as well as corruption and the involvement of political actors. Efforts to reduce cartel violence should focus on demobilizing individuals involved in cartel activities, disarming them, and implementing social spending initiatives to address vulnerable populations.
The key to shrinking cartels is cutting recruitment, and a roundup of books, video games, movies, and more
First up on this week’s show: modeling Mexico’s cartels. Rafael Prieto-Curiel, a postdoctoral research fellow at the Complexity Science Hub in Vienna, joins host Sarah Crespi to discuss how modeling cartel activities can help us understand the impact of potential interventions such as increased policing or reducing gang recruitment.
Lisa Sanchez, executive director of México Unido Contra la Delincuencia, talks with Sarah about just how difficult it would be to make the model results—which show that reducing recruitment is key—a reality.
Next on the show, Science books editor Valerie Thompson and books intern Jamie Dickman discuss a huge selection of science books, movies, video games, and even new exhibits—all due out this fall. See the complete roundup here.
This week’s episode was produced with help from Podigy.