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Howard Marks delves into the concept of sea changes in financial markets, distinguishing them from typical market cyclicality. He reflects on past sea changes, such as the shift in risk-return thinking in the late '70s, and the impact of declining interest rates in the '80s. Marks explains how cycles occur due to human optimism and excesses, leading to corrections back to trend lines. He predicts a potential new sea change in the financial markets today, highlighting the significance of understanding fundamental shifts in market dynamics.
Howard Marks discusses the evolution of passive investment strategies driven by computers and the potential role of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning in investment decision-making. He acknowledges the superiority of machines in data processing and execution speed but emphasizes the need for human insight in subjective and qualitative assessments. Marks envisions a future where AI enhances investment processes but believes there will always be a place for individuals to make nuanced, qualitative judgments that machines cannot replicate.
Howard Marks expresses skepticism towards government interventions in the economy and advocates for market forces to determine resource allocation. Reflecting on Japan and yield curve management, he compares government actions to a temporary water spout effect that cannot be sustained indefinitely. Marks underscores the importance of leaving the economy largely untouched by regulators, intervening only in extreme cases of overheating or stagnation to maintain market equilibrium.
China's economic growth has been nothing short of a miracle, with its GDP increasing massively over the last 40 years. The country has transitioned millions of people from farms to cities, significantly boosting its manufacturing sector. Despite facing challenges like the need to sell goods globally and ideological differences with the US, China's economic progress continues under Chairman Xi. The speaker believes caution is necessary when investing in China but recognizes the potential for growth.
The speaker emphasizes the importance of risk management and contrarian investing strategies when making investment decisions. Position sizing, margin of safety, and understanding the unpredictability of future events are key factors in managing risks effectively. The speaker argues against rigid rules in investing and highlights the significance of qualitative insights over purely quantifiable metrics. Additionally, the speaker discusses the importance of learning from mistakes and overcoming cognitive biases to make informed investment decisions.
Trey Lockerbie invites the renowned Howard Marks, known for establishing Oaktree Capital with $140B in AUM and earning a reputation as an investing legend for his consistent performance, unconventional investments, and insightful memos. In their discussion, Howard shares his views on various topics, including A.I., Bitcoin, and his prediction that the financial markets are undergoing a significant transformation, which he believes is the third such occurrence in his illustrious 50-year career.
Howard is the author of several books on investing, including "The Most Important Thing" and "Mastering the Market Cycles," which have been widely praised for their insights into the investment process.
IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:
0:00 - Intro.
01:53 - His prediction that the financial markets are entering a Sea Change, the third such event he has seen in his over 50 year career.
02:16 - Why this Sea Change differs from normal market cyclicality.
18:58 - How a more moderate interest rate environment affects global debt and his risk assessments.
36:28 - How studies of Japan influenced his investing philosophies.
48:21 - His thoughts on A.I., Bitcoin, Japan & China.
56:14 - Also included are some of Howard’s personal insights.
Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.
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