America's top national security reporter, David Sanger, discusses the return of superpower conflicts and the underestimated ambitions of Russia and China. He explores the limitations of economic interdependence in preventing conflict and the need to counter the 'grand delusion.' They touch on Putin's strategic vision, Taiwan's semiconductor dominance, and the challenges of cutting off key technologies to China.
The shift towards a new Cold War era involves conflicts between major powers like Russia, the United States, and China.
Failure to interpret Russia and China's true intentions led to strategic miscalculations and geopolitical tensions.
Deep dives
Biden's Admission at a Fundraiser about Russia's Nuclear Threat
During a Democratic fundraiser in New York City, President Biden disclosed classified information about Russia's consideration of using nuclear weapons in Ukraine, leading to a potential immediate nuclear threat. This revelation, reminiscent of the Cuban Missile Crisis, highlighted a significant shift in global power dynamics toward a new Cold War era, involving conflicts between major powers like Russia, the United States, and China.
Post-Cold War Illusions and Russia's Aggressive Actions
The post-Cold War notion that free trade would foster global peace and democracy has been challenged by recent events, such as Russia's military actions in Ukraine despite prior economic ties and the belief in shared interests. This contrasts with earlier beliefs that economic integration would deter conflicts, signaling a return to a more competitive and aggressive global landscape.
Challenges in Understanding China and Russia's Intentions
A critical intelligence failure was the misinterpretation of Russia and China's intentions, assuming they would align with Western values and rules over time. Instances like Putin's territorial claims and China's aggressive behavior demonstrate a failure to grasp their true objectives, leading to strategic miscalculations and geopolitical tensions.
Shift towards Containment and Technological Competition
In response to geopolitical challenges, a containment strategy is advocated to restrict rivals' access to critical technologies, emphasizing the need to safeguard key sectors like semiconductor production. Efforts to limit China's technological advancements, such as semiconductor manufacturing, reflect a new approach to uphold national security interests and counter emerging threats in a rapidly evolving global landscape.
David Sanger thinks so. After four decades at The New York Times, he may be America’s most experienced national security reporter, and he thinks superpower conflict is back. He describes how the U.S. overestimated the democratizing power of globalization, underestimated the ambitions of Russia and China, and what, if anything, can be done to counter the “grand delusion” that kept so many smart observers from seeing this new era coming.
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