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CFA Society Chicago

CFA Society Chicago Macro Matters - equity market thoughts heading into 2025

Dec 12, 2024
Michael Kantrowitz, the #1 Strategist at Piper Sandler, shares his expert insights on the US equity market backdrop. He discusses the implications of expensive valuations and tight credit spreads on investment strategies. Kantrowitz highlights the importance of macroeconomic factors and their influence on stock performance, revealing how small caps may finally outperform. The conversation also covers the HOPE framework, forecasting economic shifts as we approach 2025, and emphasizes analyzing sectors through macroeconomic indicators.
59:05

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Quick takeaways

  • Macroeconomic trends significantly influence stock performance, contributing to approximately 70% of returns compared to 30% from company fundamentals.
  • The HOPE framework is essential for analyzing economic indicators' reactions to Federal Reserve policies, especially during distinct economic phases.

Deep dives

Impact of Macroeconomic Trends on Stocks

Understanding the relationship between macroeconomic trends and individual stock performance is essential for investors. Recent data suggests that approximately 70% of stock returns can be attributed to macro factors, such as market movements and sector performance, while just 25 to 30% stems from the specific fundamentals of individual companies. This shift has led many analysts, even those who traditionally focused on bottom-up stock picking, to consider macro indicators more seriously in their investment strategies. The evidence indicates that macro trends not only influence market behavior but are increasingly recognized by investors as pivotal to stock performance.

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