CFA Society Chicago Macro Matters - equity market thoughts heading into 2025
Dec 12, 2024
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Michael Kantrowitz, the #1 Strategist at Piper Sandler, shares his expert insights on the US equity market backdrop. He discusses the implications of expensive valuations and tight credit spreads on investment strategies. Kantrowitz highlights the importance of macroeconomic factors and their influence on stock performance, revealing how small caps may finally outperform. The conversation also covers the HOPE framework, forecasting economic shifts as we approach 2025, and emphasizes analyzing sectors through macroeconomic indicators.
Macroeconomic trends significantly influence stock performance, contributing to approximately 70% of returns compared to 30% from company fundamentals.
The HOPE framework is essential for analyzing economic indicators' reactions to Federal Reserve policies, especially during distinct economic phases.
Small business optimism signals potential growth for the economy, but vigilance regarding inflation and interest rates remains crucial for future performance.
Deep dives
Impact of Macroeconomic Trends on Stocks
Understanding the relationship between macroeconomic trends and individual stock performance is essential for investors. Recent data suggests that approximately 70% of stock returns can be attributed to macro factors, such as market movements and sector performance, while just 25 to 30% stems from the specific fundamentals of individual companies. This shift has led many analysts, even those who traditionally focused on bottom-up stock picking, to consider macro indicators more seriously in their investment strategies. The evidence indicates that macro trends not only influence market behavior but are increasingly recognized by investors as pivotal to stock performance.
HOPE Framework: A Guide to Economic Cycles
The HOPE framework provides a structured approach to analyze how different economic indicators react to changes in Federal Reserve policy and economic conditions. This framework has proven particularly valuable in forecasting broader economic improvements, with housing activity historically leading recoveries. Current data reveals a concerning trend in housing, as existing home sales and mortgage applications remain near record lows, signaling potential challenges ahead. The effectiveness of this framework hinges on understanding how different sectors and indicators interact during distinct phases of economic cycles.
Challenges Facing the Housing Sector
The housing sector is currently experiencing significant challenges that may hinder overall economic recovery in 2025. Despite some success in the homebuilder stocks amid low inventory, overall housing activity has not rebounded, with existing home sales still languishing. Factors such as high mortgage rates and limited availability of housing stock have contributed to persistent affordability issues, complicating any potential recovery in the sector. Moving forward, analysts are questioning the housing market's ability to contribute positively to the broader economy, as its cyclical recovery may be subdued compared to historical patterns.
Small Businesses and Economic Optimism
The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) data indicates a cautious optimism among small businesses, with recent surveys showing an uptick in expectations regarding sales and earnings. This improved sentiment is notable as smaller businesses often serve as a bellwether for economic trends, particularly during times when larger companies may not reflect the same challenges or prospects. However, while this optimism signals potential growth, it is crucial to remain vigilant about external factors such as inflation and interest rates that could temper expectations. Analysts argue that maintaining a close watch on small business metrics will provide valuable insights into the overall economic landscape moving into 2025.
Earnings Revisions and Market Performance
Earnings revisions are expected to play a significant role in determining market performance in 2025, particularly as macroeconomic conditions stabilize. Historically, companies with positive earnings revisions tend to outperform during economic recoveries, as these revisions reflect an underlying strength and adaptability to changing conditions. Nevertheless, analysts caution that a focus on earnings alone may not suffice; factors such as credit spreads and interest rates will also dictate market dynamics. Investors should prioritize screening for companies with favorable earnings trajectories as a potential strategy for navigating the evolving economic environment.
Rich Excell, CFA, CMT is joined by Institutional Investor's #1 Strategist Michael Kantrowitz, CFA from Piper Sandler to discuss the US equity market backdrop. What does the factor performance of the market tell us? Are expensive valuations a problem? What about tight credit spreads? Can small caps finally outperform? All of this and more
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