As stock market crashes, is US facing new financial crisis? Economist Michael Hudson explains
Aug 7, 2024
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Economist Michael Hudson discusses the recent stock market crash and looming financial crisis. He dives into extreme market volatility, the unraveling Japanese yen carry trade, and the impact of the AI bubble on Big Tech. Hudson unpacks important geopolitical tensions involving Russia, Ukraine, and Iran, highlighting how these factors influence global stability. He critiques the short-sightedness of current economic analysis and challenges listeners to rethink the disconnect between wealth and real economic conditions.
The U.S. economy faces significant systemic risks due to an unsustainable debt burden affecting various sectors and contributing to potential crisis.
Recent stock market volatility, reminiscent of historical crashes, is fueled by the unwinding yen carry trade and pressures from high interest rates.
Geopolitical tensions, such as conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, are influencing financial stability and investor confidence in the U.S. market.
Deep dives
Economic Debt and Its Implications
The current economy has reached a critical point in its debt-carrying capacity, making recovery unlikely. Every economic rebound since the 2008 recession has been weaker, driven by a continually increasing debt burden. This debt is shouldered by a large portion of the economy, including wage earners, corporations, and government entities, while the wealth generated from this financial system disproportionately benefits the creditor class, which constitutes merely a fraction of the population. The growing realization among analysts is that the United States may be on the brink of another financial crisis, as increasing debts create systemic risks and limit potential recovery.
Stock Market Volatility and Major Losses
Recent events in the stock market have drawn parallels to historical crashes, notably a significant market dip reminiscent of Black Monday in 1987. Major losses on August 5th saw a collective drop of $600 billion among the largest tech companies, known as the Magnificent Seven, which includes well-known firms like Apple and Amazon. This volatility is alarming, especially given that the volatility index is at its highest since the pandemic began. The concentration of wealth in the stock market exacerbates the risk, with 93% of stocks held by just 10% of the population while a substantial percentage of Americans indirectly invest in stocks through retirement accounts.
Global Financial Dynamics and Interest Rates
The unwinding of the yen carry trade has been identified as a contributing factor to recent stock market downturns, stemming from rising interest rates in Japan. Investors leveraged low-interest yen to purchase U.S. assets, but as Japan adjusts its rates, global margin calls have forced many to liquidate their positions, leading to widespread asset selling. Additionally, there are concerns that this market turbulence could signify the bursting of the AI bubble, as skepticism grows regarding the sustainability of massive investments in AI technology. Analysts also point to the prolonged high interest rates maintained by the U.S. Federal Reserve as a factor adding pressure to an already strained financial system.
Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Consequences
The U.S. markets are not immune to the geopolitical climate, with ongoing conflicts in regions such as Ukraine and the Middle East impacting financial stability. The escalation of these conflicts raises questions about U.S. economic strategy and involvement in international affairs. Analysts warn that prolonged military engagements and sanctions against nations like China could lead to a schism in global trade and finance, potentially isolating the U.S. economy further. As geopolitical risks continue to mount, they threaten to destabilize investor confidence and contribute to declining asset values.
The Future of the U.S. Financial System
The potential for government intervention to restore market confidence is limited, with little indication that past policies can reignite economic growth or stabilize stock prices. The financial sector operates on a model that often prioritizes short-term gains over long-term economic sustainability, creating a situation where wealth is increasingly concentrated among the few at the top of the economic hierarchy. Despite the growing debt levels and systemic risks, it appears that the structure of the U.S. economy favors financial extraction rather than genuine industrial growth. This raises concerns about the ability of average citizens to secure their financial futures as the economy continues to evolve under neoliberal policies.
The stock market crashed on August 5, in a new "Black Monday". What caused it? Is the USA on the verge of a new financial crisis? Ben Norton is joined by economist Michael Hudson to discuss the extreme volatility, AI / Big Tech bubble, Japanese yen carry trade unwind, Chinese economy, and geopolitical dangers.
VIDEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=stgBVvz5RIM
Check out Geopolitical Economy Hour, the program Michael Hudson hosts with Radhika Desai, here: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLDAi0NdlN8hMl9DkPLikDDGccibhYHnDP
His website: https://michael-hudson.com
Topics
0:00 Teaser
0:54 Why did the stock market crash?
8:19 Is the US economy entering a recession?
12:36 Japan and the yen carry trade unwind
27:14 China's economy
32:41 Popping of the AI / Big Tech bubble?
46:05 Geopolitics: Russia, Ukraine, Israel, Iran
54:19 Re-inflating the bubble?
1:03:51 Can't the debt be rolled over?
1:07:27 Asset price inflation vs consumer price inflation
1:11:29 Capital gains grow faster than the economy
1:13:12 What is missing from most economic analysis?
1:26:05 Outro
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