Frontline special - Russia analyst George Barros of ISW
Jan 12, 2025
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George Barros, Head of the Russia team at the Institute for the Study of War, shares insights on the ongoing Ukraine conflict, specifically Ukraine's renewed offensive in Kursk. He discusses the tactical challenges faced by Russian forces and the implications for global security. The conversation also highlights Ukraine's innovative electronic warfare strategies and their impact on Russian drone operations. Additionally, Barros touches on the escalating tensions following the downing of an Azerbaijan Airlines flight and its effects on regional alliances.
Ukrainian forces have made modest tactical advances in Kursk, signaling possible preparations for a larger offensive despite ongoing Russian troop casualties.
The misidentification incident during drone strikes that downed an Azerbaijani Airlines flight has created strains in Russia's regional relations, particularly influencing Azerbaijan's stance towards Moscow.
Deep dives
Ukraine's Tactical Gains in Kursk
Ukraine has recently resumed offensive operations in Kursk Oblast after several months of defensive measures. Small tactical gains have been made, including advancements towards the village of Berdin. Ukrainian forces have utilized equipment like mechanized vehicles to penetrate deeper into the town's territory. However, the scale of these attacks remains relatively modest, leading to speculation about whether this is a preparatory phase for a larger offensive.
Challenges of Russian Casualty Rates
The Russian military is facing unsustainable casualty rates, reportedly losing an estimated 30,000 troops per month, which has prompted discussions on mobilization. Despite recent reinforcements from North Korea, which added around 10,000 troops to Russian forces, this number has proven insufficient against ongoing Ukrainian attacks. The Russian government is offering high enlistment bonuses to attract more volunteers, creating economic strains and inflation. This situation suggests that without a strategy to reduce losses, Putin may soon have to consider broader mobilization.
The Role of Electronic Warfare
Ukrainian forces are effectively employing electronic warfare tactics to disrupt Russian drone operations in Kursk, blocking communications essential for successful air support. This electronic interference hampers the effectiveness of both Russian reconnaissance and their mechanized units, demonstrating the importance of coordinated operations in modern warfare. Additionally, Ukraine's ability to integrate various combat services reflects a growing proficiency in combined arms operations amid battle scenarios. This ongoing adaptation may play a crucial role in future military engagements.
Implications of the Azerbaijani Airlines Incident
The recent downing of an Azerbaijani Airlines flight by Russian air defenses highlights the complexities of Russia's regional relations and the operational challenges within their military. This incident underscores an apparent misidentification during Ukrainian drone strikes, leading to tragic civilian casualties. Azerbaijan, while complex in its ties with Russia, is likely reassessing its relationship given this incident. Consequently, the relationship dynamics in the Caucasus may become increasingly strained, particularly as Azerbaijan shifts away from Russian influence.
In this extended Frontline conversation, George Barros of the Institute for the Study of War delves into recent developments in the Ukraine conflict, particularly the offensive operations in Kursk.
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