Deep Dish on Global Affairs

The Debate on US Strategy in Taiwan-China Relations

Jul 20, 2023

Tensions between Taiwan and China are debated. Should the US prioritize military deterrence or political solutions? The importance of maintaining deterrence and Taiwan's resistance capabilities is discussed. The need for political and diplomatic assurance is emphasized. The US should keep an open door policy with China and determine limits on arms sales to avoid provocation. Alternative policy approaches and the importance of US-Taiwan-China relations are explored.

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Quick takeaways

Bolstering deterrence and shaping Xi Jinping's calculation can raise the costs for aggressive action against Taiwan, helping to avoid a conflict in the Taiwan Strait.

Striking the right balance between deterrence and reassurance is crucial in US-China-Taiwan relations to mitigate the risk of a conflict, emphasizing the importance of credible political and diplomatic reassurance.

Deep dives

The Growing Concern of a Possible War Between China and the US Over Taiwan

Tensions between China and the US have increased in recent years, raising the possibility of an armed conflict over Taiwan. There is a debate on how to avoid war, with disagreement over the best course of action. China's military capabilities, intentions of President Xi Jinping, and its assertive actions in other contexts are factors contributing to the concern. While conflict is not imminent or inevitable, there is a need for a smart mix of policies to deter a conflict in the Taiwan Strait. The US should bolster deterrence and shape Xi Jinping's calculation to raise the costs for aggressive action against Taiwan.

Introduction

2min

US Strategy in Taiwan-China Relations

27min

The Strategic Importance of Taiwan and U.S. Policy

7min

The Importance of Political and Diplomatic Assurance in Deterrence

2min

The Importance of Keeping the Door Open in Taiwan-China Relations

5min

Alternative Approaches and Stakes in US-Taiwan-China Relations

1min

As tensions escalate between Taiwan and China, should Washington back Taiwan through increased militarily deterrence or prioritize reassurance and diplomacy with China? Quincy Institute’s Michael Swaine and the Council on Foreign Relations’ David Sacks debate the growing policymaker consensus for US military support to deter a Chinese attack, while considering dissenting views that prioritize political solutions for China-Taiwan unification from the US standpoint.

Tune in next week for part two of this episode where Deep Dish focuses on Taiwan's internal politics around these issues and their views on how to best preserve peace in the China-Taiwan strait.

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