Guests Kelsey Berro, Sarah Hunt, Peter Tchir, and Kevin Tynan discuss the impact of rising interest rates on bond prices, concerns about the trajectory of treasuries, options for the future of automakers, the current state of the Republican Party, and obstacles and bipartisanship in policy making.
The recent stress in the banks due to losses in the bond market has been eased by the bank term funding program (BTFP) implemented by the Fed, providing stabilization and caution is advised when investing in financials.
The tightening financial conditions engineered by the Federal Reserve can curtail banks' ability to finance the economy, leading to increased pressure on corporate earnings and balance sheets.
Deep dives
Banks and Bond Market Stress Amidst Federal Reserve Interventions
The recent stress in the banks due to losses in the bond market has been eased by the bank term funding program (BTFP), implemented by the Fed. The BTFP allows banks to pledge treasury securities at par, providing a stabilization factor that was absent during the March crisis. However, there is still stress in the market, and caution is advised when investing in financials, as interest margins are under pressure, and there may be future pressure on bank margins.
Credit Contraction and Tightening Financial Conditions
The H8 data shows contraction in credit in the economy, specifically negative CNI lending over the past three and six months, and tightness in credit conditions according to the senior loan officer survey. These tightening financial conditions are partly engineered by the Federal Reserve, as they aim for tighter financial conditions. This tightening can curtail banks' ability to finance the economy and may lead to increased pressure on corporate earnings and balance sheets.
Repricing in the Bond Market and Inflation Concerns
There has been a significant repricing in the bond market, with yields rising and prices falling. The five-year, five-year real yield is around 2.3%, which is in line with pre-financial crisis levels. While inflation concerns persist, citing the three-month run rate on core PC at 2.16%, the overall consensus is that the fundamentals and valuations will ultimately weigh over short-term technical factors. However, the impact of structural changes in the bond market and reduced traditional buyers could influence future outlooks.
Challenges and Opportunities for the Auto Industry
The auto industry is facing challenges and uncertainties. The rise of electric vehicle (EV) adoption, especially high-priced models, raises questions about practicality and affordability. There is also the issue of labor strikes in the industry and the impact on production and costs. To address these concerns, it is important to support small businesses, reduce tax and regulatory burdens, and foster a favorable environment for innovation and growth. Additionally, increasing unity and effective communication within the industry and addressing long-term fiscal challenges are crucial for sustainable success.
Kelsey Berro, JPMorgan Asset Management Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, says the economy is not going to be able to handle these rates, but the Fed will be the last to admit that. Sarah Hunt, Alpine Saxon Woods Chief Market Strategist, says there's room for fixed income in portfolios. Peter Tchir, Academy Securities Head of Macro Strategy, sees concern as people question the trajectory of treasuries. Kevin Tynan, Bloomberg Intelligence, discusses the latest in the EV market, as well as UAW strikes. Rep. Bill Huizenga, (R) Michigan, expects "real trouble" if bond rates continue to go up, as the US govt faces a potential shutdown on November 17th. Get the Bloomberg Surveillance newsletter, delivered every weekday. Sign up now: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/surveillance