Conversations with Tyler
Sheilagh Ogilvie on Epidemics, Guilds, and the Persistence of Bad Institutions
Apr 2, 2025
Sheilagh Ogilvie, an economic historian at All Souls College, Oxford, unpacks the hidden narratives of epidemics and institutions. She explores the economic impacts of pandemics, discussing the 'happy story' of the Black Death and its flaws. Ogilvie reveals how local governance often outperformed central authorities in managing health crises and debunks the myths surrounding medieval guilds. She dives into the evolution of economic growth in England and the intricate connections between marriage patterns and institutional effectiveness.
59:11
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Quick takeaways
- Historical pandemics reveal that local governance has consistently outperformed centralized authorities in effective contagion management and community welfare.
- The economic narrative surrounding the Black Death is complex, illustrating initial devastation followed by gradual economic improvements and regional variations.
Deep dives
Economic Impact of Past Epidemics
Historically, epidemics have led to significant economic decline due to widespread fear and voluntary market withdrawal. During earlier pandemics, people often chose to withdraw from economic activities because they felt powerless to combat the illness, resulting in severe reductions in GDP. For instance, withdrawal rates of up to 90% were reported in certain industries, such as the postal system during plagues in 17th century Italy. This historical context reveals that individuals in the past experienced far more acute economic impacts from pandemics compared to modern times.
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