RiskReversal Pod Marko Kolanovic: The Recession Signal Big Tech Is Hiding From You
Sep 26, 2025
Marko Kolanovic, former Chief Market Strategist at JPMorgan, dives into current market dynamics and risks. He discusses the implications of Federal Reserve rate cuts and critiques the sustainability of AI-driven gains. Marko warns about geopolitical issues and the concentration of tech stocks, while highlighting the potential of undervalued healthcare stocks. He also critiques the overly optimistic narratives surrounding AI revenue, emphasizing the risks of state capitalism versus free market principles in shaping future investments.
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Narrative Can Outpace Macro Reality
- Markets often rally on narrative themes like AI even when other asset classes and macro data disagree.
- Powell's comment and mixed data forced a recalibration of dovish expectations last week.
Options Rolls And Month-End Pressure
- Technical and calendar effects (options rolls, month-end rebalancing, buyback blackout) create predictable short-term pressure.
- Those mechanics can trigger larger systematic sell-offs if momentum and volatility signals flip.
Avoid Buying Into Buyback Illusion
- Expect reduced buyback demand near earnings and avoid counting on discretionary repurchases until blackouts end.
- Monitor month-end rebalancing as a practical trigger for short-term selling pressure.