AJ Osborne Podcast

14. America’s Unfixable Economy: Are We Headed for Another Great Depression? w/Economist Lauren Saidel-Baker

Jan 30, 2025

Economist Lauren Saidel-Baker from ITR Economics shares her alarming predictions about an impending depression by 2030, driven by government actions rather than traditional market failures. She discusses immense investment opportunities arising from the predicted downturn and explores the fluctuating housing market and rising interest rates. Additionally, Lauren highlights the impact of labor shortages and AI on productivity, as well as the implications of geopolitical conflicts on the U.S. economy. Prepare for significant changes as we navigate these economic shifts!

41:03

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Episode guests

Lauren Saidel-Baker

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Episode notes

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Quick takeaways

The anticipated economic depression around 2030 is primarily driven by government spending challenges and demographic shifts rather than traditional market failures.

Despite looming economic challenges, there will be significant investing opportunities for those prepared to navigate the changing landscape over the next five years.

Deep dives

Impending Economic Contraction

A significant economic contraction is anticipated around 2030, deviating from typical recessions and forecasting a depression. The prevailing view is that delaying current economic issues may exacerbate their severity in the future. Experts indicate that this pending downturn could be unprecedented, driven by demographic shifts and government spending challenges. Economists emphasize that while some may view this as a crisis point, it may also present substantial opportunities for savvy investors.

Intro

2min

Navigating Economic Shifts

14min

Navigating Labor Shortages and the Promise of AI Productivity

3min

Navigating Economic Challenges Ahead

17min

Demographic Shifts and Economic Outlook: A Steady Path Ahead

3min

Geopolitical Turbulence and Economic Implications

2min

The next great depression is coming faster than many of us realize, but this time, it won’t be because of the stock market, the real estate market, bad banking practices, or anything we’ve seen before. Instead, the government will be the one to drive us into a depression, and only those who are watching the economic signs will see it coming. If you’re reading this right now, you’re one of the lucky ones, and we’ll explain why.

Lauren Saidel-Baker, economist at ITR Economics, has been growing concerned about where our economy is headed. We money-printed our way out of what should have been a recession and continued to do so whenever the economy began to feel even slightly weak. But what’s coming over the next five years is almost inevitable. Even the new Trump administration, with its talks of budget slashing and cost saving, might not even dent the growing forces pushing us into the unavoidable.

In today’s show, Lauren explains in detail why her firm is predicting a 2030 depression, what will cause it, whether we can avoid it, and what the economy will look like leading up to it. There’s good news, though, both in the long and short term, but you’ll need to be prepared to take advantage of the enormous opportunities to come.

Insights from today’s episode:

Why Lauren believes we could be headed into a great depression in 2030
The tremendous investing opportunities you must prepare for over the next five years
Home price and interest rate predictions and whether we’ll ever hit three percent rates again
The government’s growing debt and whether lowering rates could help us pay it off
The unemployment squeeze hurting employers and causing labor costs to rise
Inflation forecasts and why we may not be out of the woods yet

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ITR Economics: https://itreconomics.com/

ITR Economics YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@itreconomics

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