RiskReversal Pod Rosie Shiny on Gold with a $6,000 Target
Jan 23, 2026
David Rosenberg, founder of Rosenberg Research and a renowned economist, shares his insights on market predictions and economic trends. He reflects on his past views, admitting he was overly bearish on US equities. Rosenberg discusses the implications of inflation, the strength of the US dollar, and forecasts a decline in 10-year yields. He highlights the potential for recession and the importance of understanding market cycles. Notably, he predicts a target of $6,000 for gold, driven by central bank policies and dynamics of supply and demand.
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Rosenberg's 2025 Self-Assessment
- David Rosenberg admits he was too bearish on US equities and slightly too bullish on long-term treasuries in 2025.
- His model portfolio still returned about 30% and outperformed many global benchmarks despite those misses.
Rates: Expect Lower Policy Rates
- Rosenberg expects the Fed funds rate to fall into the low 2% range by year-end and forecasts the 10-year yield near 3.5%.
- He thinks that would generate roughly a 10% total return from the 10-year note in the year ahead.
K-Shaped Economy And Wealth-Driven Spending
- Rosenberg highlights a K-shaped economy: a narrow top benefiting from market gains while most households face weak income growth.
- He argues the stock market now drives consumer spending via wealth effects, not the other way around.