Outerbridge Capital's Rory Wallace on Allot's rebound and how to value Verizon partnership $ALLT
Jan 22, 2025
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Rory Wallace, Chief Investment Officer at Outerbridge Capital, dives into the intriguing world of Allot Ltd., a frontrunner in network intelligence and security. He highlights the market's underestimation of Allot's strategic partnership with Verizon and the significant potential for growth in cybersecurity offerings. Wallace discusses how customers are reevaluating Verizon's services, the recent stock price surge, and why this time may differ from past performance narratives. He also touches on shifts in the competitive telecommunications landscape and valuation intricacies.
Rory Wallace highlights Allot's unique position in the telecom industry, leveraging its expertise in deep packet inspection and cybersecurity solutions to drive future growth.
The recent partnership developments with Verizon and Vodafone are pivotal, likely leading to substantial revenue growth and market re-rating for Allot.
Leadership changes, including the new CEO Eyal Harari, indicate a strategic shift aimed at operational efficiency and long-term growth for Allot.
Deep dives
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Overview of Alot
Alot is presented as a niche provider of networking technology solutions, specifically focusing on deep packet inspection (DPI) equipment for telecom operators. Despite experiencing a long period of stagnation in stock performance, recent developments suggest a potential re-rating of the company's value as it serves a significant total addressable market. Alot utilizes its established presence in telecom networks to pivot into cybersecurity, providing solutions that require no end-user installation, greatly increasing user adoption potential. This dual focus on DPI and cybersecurity positions Alot favorably in a market expected to grow from $500 million to a much larger scale.
Challenges Faced by Alot
The transition into cybersecurity was fraught with challenges, most notably unrealistic revenue generation timelines. Investors initially faced disappointment as Alot had to continually lower its revenue projections over multiple quarters, raising doubts about its product's value. Nevertheless, research indicates that while Alot's ambition may have been overly optimistic, the underlying value proposition of its cybersecurity offerings remains intact. This understanding, combined with improved financial stability as the company becomes cash flow positive, suggests a potential turnaround that could ultimately benefit shareholders.
Looking at Market Opportunities
Recent insights suggest that Alot's partnerships with major telecoms like Verizon and Vodafone are showing positive progress, which could lead to substantial revenue growth. Although initial expansions in these partnerships occurred incrementally, there are indications that significant scale-ups may have taken place, potentially reaching hundreds of millions in annual recurring revenue. As competition among telecom partners is relatively subdued following the misfortunes of major competitor Sandvine, Alot stands to benefit from increased demand for its offerings. Analysts believe that these strategies will facilitate a transformative phase for Alot, unlocking value that had previously been trapped in stagnant performance.
Evaluating Management Changes and Future Potential
The introduction of a new CEO, Eyal Harari, is seen as a pivotal moment for Alot, as he brings a wealth of experience from his time at Radcom, where he achieved significant growth. Alongside a new CFO, these leadership changes signal a strategic shift towards enhancing operational efficiency and focusing on long-term growth. Analysts express confidence in the management's ability to reposition the company within the competitive telecom landscape, especially as they aim to capture a larger share of both DPI and cybersecurity markets. With a potentially large pipeline of future contracts and a more resilient business model, Alot is anticipated to experience significant valuation improvements in the coming years.
Rory Wallace, Chief Investment Officer at Outerbridge Capital, joins the podcast to discuss his thesis on Allot Ltd. (NASDAQ: ALLT), a leading global provider of innovative network intelligence and security solutions for service providers and enterprises worldwide.
[2:06] What is Allot $ALLT and why is it so interesting to Rory
[7:22] What is Rory seeing with $ALLT thesis that that the market is missing
[12:11] Fundamental question RE: vendors and vendor stickiness with Verizon partnership
[20:51] Why are customers signing up for Verizon security service vs. something else
[27:34] What drove $ALLT run in stock price in last couple months
[30:44] What is different this time with the $ALLT pitch vs. past write-ups on VIC
[34:55] Management
[39:10] Is there a chance that AT&T would use the same CCAS provider as Verizon (Allot)
[43:36] Shareholder mindset of the company
[46:07] $ALLT valuation
[48:22] Competitive landscape
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