Update: French Budget Crisis Risk, Trump Meets Zuckerberg & 130k Jobs At Risk
Nov 28, 2024
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Dan Hansen, Bloomberg's chief UK economist, shares insights on the potential 130,000 job losses tied to the £26 billion tax hike proposed by UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves. He discusses the alarming ramifications for businesses forced to pass these costs onto employees. Additionally, the conversation dives into the precarious situation in France, where the finance minister's budget bill faces significant hurdles. The market's reaction, including rising borrowing costs, highlights growing concerns over economic stability in both France and the UK.
France's financial stability is at risk as borrowing costs align with Greece's, necessitating concessions on the 2025 budget to avoid a political crisis.
Tax hikes imposed on UK businesses could significantly jeopardize job security, potentially leading to a loss of 130,000 jobs if employers pass costs onto workers.
Deep dives
France Faces Political Turmoil
France's financial stability is under scrutiny as borrowing costs have reached alarming levels, matching those of Greece for the first time. The finance minister has warned that failure to pass a budget could lead to a loss of control over the nation’s finances. A potential no-confidence vote looms, which could oust Prime Minister Michel Barnier if opposition parties unite, particularly under the influence of far-right leader Marine Le Pen. This political landscape creates significant uncertainty for investors and raises concerns about the government's ability to implement necessary fiscal measures.
UK Business Tax Hikes May Lead to Job Losses
New analysis indicates that tax increases announced for UK businesses could result in up to 130,000 job losses if employers pass on the burden of these costs, primarily related to national insurance contributions. The impact of these tax hikes might see unemployment rise by about 0.4 percentage points, disrupting the current stability in the job market. This situation presents a dilemma for firms, leading to potential cuts in hiring, reduced hours, or increased prices as they navigate the new financial landscape. The intertwining of job security concerns could also trigger a broader economic slowdown as consumer spending declines.
Disparities in Job Opportunities for Black Graduates
Research reveals that Black graduates in the UK are twice as likely to be denied top jobs compared to their white counterparts, highlighting significant hurdles within recruitment processes. Despite a high volume of applications from Black graduates in sectors like finance and law, the rate of job offers remains disproportionately low. Factors contributing to this gap include socioeconomic barriers and limited awareness of corporate pathways, which further exacerbate the challenge for these candidates. This systemic issue underscores the importance of addressing diversity and equity in hiring practices across industries.
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On today's podcast:
(1) French Finance Minister Antoine Armand said he is prepared to make concessions on the 2025 budget bill to avoid opposition parties toppling the government in the coming weeks. The prospect has pushed investors to sell French assets, driving up the country's borrowing costs compared with European peers. The rate on 10-year French notes matched Greece's for the first time on record on Thursday.
(2) UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves' £26 billion tax hike on businesses may cost as many as 130,000 jobs if bosses choose to pass on the burden by reducing employment, according to analysis by Bloomberg Economics.
(3) The Biden administration is weighing additional curbs on sales of semiconductor equipment and AI memory chips to China that would escalate the US crackdown on Beijing's tech ambitions but stop short of some stricter measures previously considered, according to people familiar with the matter.
(4) Donald Trump had dinner with Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg at the president-elect's Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida on Wednesday.
(5) Black graduates face racial discrimination when applying for jobs in financial, professional and legal sectors in the UK, new research shows, even as companies say they are committed to tackling under-representation of minorities at work.