Experts debate the best approach to prevent further aggression from China against Taiwan, whether through strong military deterrence or diplomatic engagement. The chapters explore topics such as defending Taiwan's democracy, the failure of previous engagement strategies, the debate between engagement and deterrence, and the importance of Taiwan's determination and military power.
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Quick takeaways
Diplomatic engagement can offer substantial and less provocative ways to help Taiwan, by involving them in global circuits and integrating them into global networks.
Engaging with China has proven ineffective in resolving the Taiwan issue, and a strong and clear military stance is necessary to protect Taiwan's security.
Deep dives
Diplomatic engagement is crucial for resolving the Taiwan issue and preventing conflict
The podcast explores the importance of diplomatic engagement as a means of resolving the Taiwan issue and preventing military conflict with China. The speaker argues that while military deterrence is important, diplomatic engagement can offer more substantial and less provocative ways to help Taiwan. They suggest involving Taiwan in global circuits to showcase its capacity to contribute to universal public goods. Additionally, the speaker emphasizes the need for economic transformations that integrate Taiwan into global networks, reducing economic dependence on China. Finally, they propose allowing Taiwan to participate in international organizations, even without statehood, to share experiences and contribute to global health, security, and environmental concerns.
Engaging with China has proven ineffective and risks misinterpretation
This segment presents the argument that engaging with China has proven ineffective in resolving the Taiwan issue and risks misinterpretation of terms and conditions. The speaker highlights how previous engagements failed to produce substantive agreements, as Beijing has continuously changed the meaning of terms like 'peaceful' and 'unofficial.' They assert that Beijing will never accept Taiwan's right to decide its own future and that engaging with China will not prevent a dispute over Taiwan's status. Instead, the speaker advocates for negotiating from a position of strength, based on the recognition that power is the language Beijing respects. They draw parallels with Russia, suggesting that efforts to change expansionist tendencies did not work and that a strong and clear military stance is necessary to protect Taiwan's security.
Military deterrence and a strong defense are essential for Taiwan's security
This part of the podcast asserts that military deterrence and a strong defense are essential for Taiwan's security in the face of China's aggressive actions. The speaker argues that engagement without power is not effective and uses the Philippines' weak naval power as an example of how China's approach to force is based on relative strength. They highlight the importance of Taiwan building its own military power and securing clear unwavering military support from its allies. The speaker contends that pure engagement with China does not work and that peace must be based on strength. They advocate for a consensus on the significance of military power in ensuring Taiwan's security and deterring Beijing's potential aggression.
For decades, Taiwan has existed in a fragile balance, neither truly independent nor unified with mainland China. While this status quo has proven surprisingly enduring, China's continued economic and military rise and its government’s increasing nationalistic rhetoric have raised fears of a conflict around the island – accidental or intentional.
What's the best approach to prevent further or more intense aggressive actions from China against Taiwan? Build up strong military deterrence, or go the way of diplomatic engagement?
In this bonus episode of STATE OF ASIA, listen to four experts debate this complicated issue.
The debaters, who presented clear-cut, time-constrained arguments in an Oxford Debate we hosted on January 23, 2024, are:
Simona Grano, TOY Senior Fellow on Taiwan at Asia Society’s Center for China Analysis, and Associate Professor and Director of the Taiwan Studies Project at the University of Zurich, Switzerland
James Lee, Professor at the Institute of European and American Studies at Academia Sinica, the national academy of Taiwan
Amanda Hsiao, Senior Analyst for China at the International Crisis Group
Yu-HuaChen, Assistant Professor in the Global Studies Program at Akita International University (AIU) in Japan
Watch the entire debate here, and learn more about the speakers on our website.
Our Oxford Debate series offers insights into complex issues, presented in short and clear arguments. Find all the debates here.
- STATE OF ASIA is a podcast from Asia Society Switzerland. Season 6, bonus episode 1 - Published: January 25, 2024 Host and Producer: Remko Tanis, Programs and Editorial Manager, Asia Society Switzerland
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