Will DOGE Achieve Significant Deficit Reduction?

This podcast examines the macro factors influencing whether DOGE can significantly reduce the deficit. The discussion highlights that deficit reduction is unlikely given the dominance of populist fiscal policies, a narrow focus on waste, fraud, and abuse, and political reluctance to make necessary fiscal sacrifices. It also evaluates portfolio implications such as mispricing in the 10-year Treasury yield and breakeven inflation rate, detailed quantitative signals, a reflationary market regime, and both risks (like elevated fiscal deficits and inflation) and opportunities (from potential productivity enhancements). Additionally, the episode addresses how the Trump administration might indirectly support the dollar through policy influence over the Federal Reserve.