Aidan Garrib, PGM's Global Macro Strategist, discusses his macro views on the oil sector, market conditions, Canadian bank risks, and US oil production. They explore the impact of central bank balance sheets on asset prices and the potential in the oil servicers industry. They also analyze US oil output indicators and discuss relative mispricing and investment opportunities in oil servicers.
The winding down of the Fed's balance sheet in the new year may tighten financial conditions and put upward pressure on the dollar.
Investing in oil services can be a diversification opportunity and a structural bull market, driven by factors such as US energy policies and NAC gas production.
Deep dives
Financial Conditions and Fed's Balance Sheet Impact
The speaker suggests that the focus should not solely be on rate hikes, but on the fact that the Fed's balance sheet is going to start winding down in the new year, potentially impacting liquidity in the market. This tightening of financial conditions could put upward pressure on the dollar.
The Impact of Central Bank Balance Sheets on Markets
The speaker explains that central bank balance sheets can impact markets through signaling effects and decreasing the cost of banks' balance sheets, leading to increased risk-taking. As quantitative tightening and a decrease in reverse repurchase agreements occur in the new year, tighter financing conditions and a stronger dollar are expected.
Opportunities in the Oil Sector and Canadian Economy
The speaker discusses the attractiveness of oil services as a diversification opportunity and a structural bull market. They highlight the increase in oil production in the Gulf of Mexico and offshore plays, driven by factors such as US energy policies, NAC gas production, and the need for heavier blending stock. Additionally, they express concerns about the Canadian economy and suggest considering non-viability contingent capital bonds as a positive carry tail risk trade.
This week Pat catches up with PGM’s Global Macro Strategist, Aidan Garrib. They discuss, Aidan’s macro views on the oil sector, the overall market conditions, the Canadian bank risks, US oil production and much more…