Episode 218: The Future of European Defense: Building Autonomy in a Dense Geopolitical Landscape with Dr. Nicolai von Ondarza

Mar 27, 2025

In this engaging discussion, Dr. Nicolai von Ondarza, an expert in European security and defense at Chatham House, explores the complex dynamics of Europe's security landscape. He emphasizes the continent's reliance on the U.S. and the urgent need for rearmament amid rising Russian threats. Delving into the implications of Germany's fiscal shifts and assessing the viability of EU-UK defense cooperation, he critiques the Rearm Europe initiative and discusses nuclear deterrent challenges. Dr. von Ondarza also raises concerns about negotiating with Putin and the sustainability of support for Ukraine.

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INSIGHT

Europe's Dependence On US Defence

Europe is strongly dependent on the United States for nuclear and conventional defence and must invest to stand on its own feet.
Dr. Nicolai von Ondarza argues Europeans must 'grow up' and rearm to avoid being negotiated over by others.

INSIGHT

Learned Helplessness Prompted By US Politics

A Trump-style push exposed Europe's learned helplessness on defence and created political momentum to act.
Recent proposals like freeing defence budgets show a rare push for European rearmament since the Cold War.

INSIGHT

Three-to-Five-Year Danger Window

Europe can outcompete Russia economically and militarily if it commits to serious rearmament.
The next three to five years are the most dangerous because rebuilding forces and industry takes time.

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This week on The International Risk Podcast, Dominic Bowen sits down with Dr. Nicolai von Ondarza to discuss Europe’s evolving security landscape and its quest for strategic autonomy in the face of rising geopolitical tensions. As Europe confronts the growing threat from Russia and the shifting priorities of the United States under Trump, the continent finds itself at a critical crossroads, navigating how to build military capabilities and reduce dependency on the U.S. security umbrella.

Dr. Nicolai von Ondarza shares his insights on how European nations can take decisive action to enhance defense, the strategic importance of rearmament, and how Europe must rethink its approach to security cooperation, particularly with the UK. The discussion also covers the future of EU defense initiatives, the challenges of nuclear deterrence, and the prospects for a ceasefire in Ukraine amid Putin’s unrealistic demands.

Dr. Nicolai von Ondarza is an Associate Fellow at Chatham House and the Head of the EU/Europe Research Division at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) in Berlin. His work focuses on Germany’s role in Europe, EU politics, institutional reforms, and EU–UK relations. He has advised the German government, Bundestag, UK government, European Parliament, and the European Commission.

Read some of Dr. Nicolai von Ondarza's articles relevant to the episode here:

- Geostrategy from the far-right.

- Resetting EU-UK defense cooperation.

- After German election win, can Merz deliver leadership at home and in Europe.

The International Risk Podcast is a must-listen for senior executives, board members, and risk advisors who need more than headlines. Each week, Dominic Bowen cuts through the noise to bring you unfiltered insights on emerging risks, geopolitics, international relations flashpoints, boardroom blind spots, and strategic opportunities. Hosted by Dominic Bowen, Head of Strategic Advisory at one of Europe's top risk consulting firms, The International Risk Podcast brings together global experts to share insights and actionable strategies from the people who have been there, done it, and shaped outcomes at the highest levels.

Dominic's 25 years of experience managing complex operations in high-risk environments, combined with his role as a public speaker and university lecturer, make him uniquely positioned to guide these conversations. From conflict zones to corporate boardrooms, he explores the risks shaping our world and how organisations can navigate them. Whether he is speaking with intelligence operatives, CEOs, political advisors, or analysts, Dominic helps leaders gain competitive advantage through these conversations.

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