Rebel Capitalist News

Last Week’s Data Has Me More Concerned Than Ever

7 snips
Aug 5, 2025
The discussion opens with alarming insights into the labor market, revealing significant downward job revisions that hint at a potential recession. Political influences on employment data add layers of complexity, raising doubts about the reliability of future job reports. Shifting focus, the conversation turns to gold investments, highlighting its role as a financial safeguard rather than a growth tool. Listeners learn about innovative gold leasing solutions that help reduce storage costs while still earning returns.
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INSIGHT

Payroll Revisions Signal Recession

  • Downward revisions to non-farm payrolls this year are larger than during the Great Financial Crisis (GFC).
  • Such large combined revisions have historically only occurred during recessions, indicating we are likely in one now.
INSIGHT

Consistent Job Number Downward Revisions

  • Every month's job numbers this year have been downwardly revised after release.
  • This sets expectation that the latest weak jobs report will also face downward revisions, possibly pushing numbers negative.
INSIGHT

Household Survey Job Losses Highlight Weakness

  • The household survey lost 260,000 jobs while the establishment survey added 73,000.
  • Combined with downward revisions, this shows a deteriorating labor market and a very weak jobs report.
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