3 Takeaways Why 199 of 200 Projects Fail: The Iron Law That Dooms Even the Smartest Ideas (#268)
Sep 23, 2025
Bent Flyvbjerg, a leading expert on major-project performance and author, reveals why 199 out of 200 big projects fail. He discusses the iron law of megaprojects, sharing eye-opening statistics and examples like California's rail system and the Sydney Opera House. Bent highlights the pitfalls of uniqueness bias and the importance of thorough preparation. He advocates for lessons from successful projects, emphasizing standardized methods and realistic planning. His key takeaways include thinking backward and understanding project odds to improve outcomes.
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The Iron Law Of Megaprojects
- Most large projects repeatedly go over budget, past schedule, and underdeliver on benefits.
- Only 0.5% of projects meet budget, schedule, and benefits simultaneously, about one in 200.
Spectacular Project Failures
- The Sydney Opera House ran 1,400% over budget and opened 10 years late.
- Nuclear reactor builds in the U.S. also experienced massive overruns and project cancellations.
Average Overruns Mask Extremes
- Average cost overruns across projects are around 30–35% measured in constant prices.
- These averages hide many individual projects with much larger overruns.
