SmarterMarkets™ Summer Playlist 2023 Episode 2 | Arjun Murti, Former Head of Equity Research on Energy Sector at Goldman Sachs, Partner at Veriten, & Publisher of “Super-Spiked” on Substack
Jul 29, 2023
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Expect A Super‑Vol, Not A Smooth Supercycle
- The energy market is entering a "super-vol" era with large ups and downs rather than a smooth multi-year supercycle.
- Expect high, volatile prices that average above historical norms and produce strong sector profitability despite sharp moves.
Demand Still Growing Despite Net‑Zero Scenarios
- Global oil demand remains well above some aggressive decarbonization scenarios and is trending higher toward 102–104 mb/d.
- The IEA 'net zero by 2050' scenario was a willful outlier and not a realistic near-term forecast.
Permian Growth Is Maturing
- Shale (Permian) has driven most supply growth but now shows signs of maturing and may plateau within a few years.
- Replacing Permian growth will require a new capex cycle in other basins that the industry has not yet started.