What America Misunderstands About the Islamic Republic of Iran
Jun 7, 2024
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Karim Sadjadpour and Mark Dubowitz discuss the US foreign policy on Iran, analyzing the 2015 nuclear deal and Trump's withdrawal. They emphasize the importance of maximum pressure on the regime and support for the Iranian people. Topics include flaws of the JCPOA, negotiation skills of Iranian leaders, US leverage through sanctions, and Iranian society's aspirations vs. the regime's reality.
The 2015 nuclear agreement aimed to contain Iran's nuclear program but raised concerns about empowering malign regional policies.
Critiques on the JCPOA focus on dangers of Iran building industrial-sized enrichment capability and sanctions relief empowering repression.
Unity among Iranian opposition is crucial, requiring US and global support for organized efforts against the oppressive regime.
Deep dives
Karim's Reasoning Behind Supporting the 2015 Nuclear Agreement
Karim Sajrapur expresses his rationale for supporting the 2015 nuclear agreement with Iran despite its flaws. He acknowledges the 60-40 proposition of containing Iran's nuclear program while highlighting concerns about empowering malign regional policies. Karim views the agreement as a means to curtail Iran's nuclear program for a prolonged period, aiming for a moderate approach amidst differing perspectives within the administration.
Concerns Over JCPOA's Sunset Provisions and Nuclear Capability
Karim critiques the sunset provisions of the JCPOA, emphasizing the potential dangers of Iran building an industrial-sized enrichment capability with reduced nuclear restrictions over time. He warns of Iran becoming a threshold nuclear power, citing concerns about sanctions relief empowering the regime for increased repression and regional aggression. Karim questions the legitimacy and legal implications of Iran's nuclear program under national law post-sunsets.
On Building Unity Among Iranian Opposition and Diaspora Support
Discussing the importance of unity among Iranian opposition, Karim reflects on challenges faced in organizing diaspora support and opposition movements against the current regime. He highlights strategic initiatives to harness diaspora energy constructively towards organized efforts with lessons learned from past experiences. Karim underscores the role of US and global support for providing tools and technological aid to empower Iranians in their fight against the oppressive regime.
Iran's Supreme Leader's Strategic Intentions
The podcast analyzes the strategic intentions of Iran's Supreme Leader, focusing on his plans to surround Israel with a ring of terrorist organizations and conventional weapons while expanding the country's nuclear weapons program. By creating a situation akin to North Korea's strategy towards South Korea, the Supreme Leader aims to limit Israel's military options and introduce a nuclear threat that could potentially hinder the Israeli Defense Forces' ability to respond effectively. The episode suggests that the Supreme Leader's meticulous approach and strategic thinking pose a significant challenge in the region.
Challenges and Recommendations in US-Iran Relations
The discussion delves into the complexities of US-Iran relations, highlighting the need for a comprehensive strategy addressing Iran's nuclear ambitions, regional activities, and internal dynamics. The episode emphasizes the importance of countering Iran's nuclear program, addressing its regional conduct, and supporting political change within Iran. It stresses the necessity for a coordinated approach where these pillars of the strategy complement each other, drawing parallels to successful Cold War strategies and underscoring the importance of maintaining a firm stance against Iran's threats to US interests.
Filling in for host Cliff May this week is Mark Dubowitz, chief executive of FDD, and he’s joined by Karim Sadjadpour. They cover the full gamut of U.S. foreign policy on Iran, from looking back at President Obama’s 2015 nuclear deal with the Islamic Republic and President Trump’s 2018 withdrawal from the JCPOA to looking ahead and arguing for policies of maximum pressure on the regime and maximum support for the Iranian people.
Karim is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where he focuses on Iran and U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East. He’s also an adjunct professor at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service. Karim regularly advises senior U.S. officials and has testified numerous times before Congress. His analysis is widely published, and he frequents major media outlets including PBS NewsHour, NPR, and CNN.
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