On May 29, for the first time since the end of apartheid in 1994, South Africa’s African National Congress (ANC)’s vote share fell below the 50 percent threshold necessary for unilaterally forming a government. Urgent coalition negotiations are ongoing to meet the constitutionally mandated 14-day deadline for parliament to select a president, but there is immense uncertainty about the outcome. The stakes are high for one of Africa’s most important countries: the outcomes for South Africa’s economy, society, and foreign policy could vary radically depending on the coalition’s composition.

Senior Fellow Joshua Meservey will moderate a discussion to examine the likelihood of different coalition scenarios and their possible impact on South Africa’s economy, society, and foreign policy. Discussants will provide a granular breakdown of the electoral results and the ongoing coalition negotiations and offer insights about South Africa’s political and economic trajectory, gleaned from decades living, working, and investing in South Africa.